Stock Market Outlook Today: Sensex, Nifty Likely to Hover Near Support; Rebound Only Beyond 25,000

Indian stock markets are likely to remain volatile on Monday, September 29, 2025, as bearish trends continue to dominate both benchmark and sectoral indices. Investors are expected to keep a close eye on global cues, macroeconomic data, and updates around the ongoing India-U.S. trade discussions, which are likely to influence near-term sentiment.

Stock Market Outlook Today for September 29, 2025

Indian equities closed lower for the sixth consecutive session on Friday, with the Nifty50 ending the day at 24,655, down 236 points or 0.95%, breaching the psychological 25,000 mark. The index has now corrected over 3% in the last six sessions, with persistent selling pressure and a cautious undertone prevailing across the market.

Stocks in Focus: Sector-wise Stocks Performances Trend Amid Trump's Pharma Tariffs

The broader indices underperformed sharply-Nifty Midcap100 and Smallcap100 both declined more than 2%, reflecting broader market weakness. All sectoral indices closed in the red, with IT and Pharma being the biggest drags, declining 2.5% and 2% respectively.

The decline in IT stocks was triggered by a weaker-than-expected outlook from Accenture, coupled with renewed concerns over H-1B visa fee hikes, while pharma stocks plunged following the U.S. government's announcement of a 100% tariff on branded drug imports effective October 1, unless they are manufactured in the U.S.

"All sectoral indices closed lower, with banks, capital goods, consumer durables, metals, IT, telecom, pharma, and PSU banks falling 1-2.5% each. The market is grappling with several headwinds, including heavy FII outflows, uncertainty over US-India trade, a weakening rupee, and the rising allure of bullion, leaving investors on edge. Midcap and small-cap indices dropped by more than 2% each," stated Bajaj Broking report.

Nifty Prediction Today: Key Technical Levels for Nifty50 on Monday

The Nifty50 index ended Friday's session on a bearish note, forming a large red candle on the daily chart. This suggests strong selling pressure and a negative short-term trend. On the weekly chart as well, Nifty broke a three-week winning streak, highlighting a shift in momentum as the index struggles to regain footing above crucial support levels.

Technically, resistance for Nifty is placed at 25,000 and 25,500, while key support levels lie at 24,600 and 24,000. If the index manages to break above the 25,000 mark, a short-term rebound may be on the cards. However, if it slips below 24,600, further downside could be expected, with 24,000 acting as a crucial level to watch.

Options data further confirms these levels, with the highest Call writing at 25,000 (1.9 crore contracts), indicating strong resistance. On the downside, Put writing is most concentrated at 24,600 (1.1 crore contracts), suggesting that traders view this as a key support zone.

Overall, the Nifty's movement on Monday will largely depend on global market cues, particularly U.S. retail inflation data and broader sentiment around India-U.S. trade developments.

Bank Nifty Prediction Today: Bearish Trend Continues On 29 September 2025

The Bank Nifty index also witnessed a sharp decline, closing at 54,389, down 1.22% on Friday. Importantly, it broke below its 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 54,901, signaling sustained bearish momentum. This marked the third consecutive session of losses for the index, which traded in a narrow range before breaking lower in the second half of the trading day.

Technical resistance for Bank Nifty is seen at 55,000 and 55,500, while key support levels are placed at 54,000 and 53,000. A move above 55,000 could signal a possible short-term recovery, but the overall trend remains weak. On the flip side, if the index breaches 54,000, it could head further south toward the 53,000 mark.

Options activity supports this outlook, with the highest Call writing at 55,000 (20.7 lakh contracts), reinforcing it as a resistance level. On the support side, the highest Put writing is concentrated at 54,000 (17 lakh contracts).

Traders holding short positions are advised to maintain their stance, but with caution. A daily close above 55,052 should be treated as a stop-loss for those continuing to bet against the trend.

Global Cues and FII Activity to Guide Sentiment

"The weakness in currency continued with rupee maintaining levels above its record low of 88.7975 versus the US dollar. Adding to the pressure, sustained FII selling (Rs13,882cr outflows in the last four sessions) weighed on market sentiments. Globally, investors maintain their cautious stance ahead of US retail inflation data to be released later today. We expect markets to remain under pressure in the near term, tracking global headwinds, key macroeconomic data, and potential development around the India-U.S. trade talks," noted Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

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