Strait of Hormuz oil shipping slows after Iranian drone strike and US retaliatory strikes

Ship movements and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were rising again after an interim US-Iran deal. That upward trend slowed after an Iranian drone hit a cargo ship on June 25. The US answered with strikes on Iranian military sites. More exchanges followed, and traffic stayed below prewar levels in a corridor vital to global energy.

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Before the June 25 incident, passages had climbed from under 10 per cent of normal levels. By the eve of the strike, traffic was near half of prewar averages. Producers and traders watched closely because the strait usually carries about a fifth of global oil and gas shipments. The recovery then paused as operators reassessed risks.

Strait of Hormuz ship traffic drops after drone strikes

Fighting widened again after a second strike on Saturday hit a tanker. The tanker was carrying crude for Qatar’s state-run energy company. Qatar has been a key negotiator between Iran and the US. The US then carried out more strikes on Iranian surveillance assets and air defence sites.

The US strikes also targeted communication systems, drone storage locations, and minelayer capabilities. Iran responded on Sunday with drone and missile strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain. After four days of traded attacks, both sides appeared to pause on Monday. The halt left ship operators waiting for clearer signals on safety and routes.

Strait of Hormuz route dispute drives risk for ship owners

Iran has tried to tighten control by insisting ships use a passage close to Iran’s coastline. Iran has created an agency to screen vessels and gather crew, cargo, and destination details. In some cases, Iran also demanded payment. That has complicated decisions for shipping firms and insurers.

The vetting process has been run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The US and the EU consider it a terrorist organisation. Payments to the IGRC can bring exposure to US or EU sanctions. Many operators instead used a southern route near Oman under a US overwatch mission using drones and aircraft.

The cargo ship hit on June 25 was attempting that US-backed Omani route. Iran’s leverage over the strait has also affected politics in Washington. The effective closure pushed US petrol prices higher. That price rise became sensitive ahead of the US mid-term elections in November.

Strait of Hormuz interim agreement terms remain disputed

US officials have said the interim agreement aimed to reopen the strait for 60 days. Under that view, Iran would not collect money from passing ships during talks. Negotiations would then seek a longer settlement to the war. Iran has pointed to different language to support its own approach.

Iran has cited wording stating Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for safe passage. Iran has argued this leaves Iran to decide how the strait reopens. The interim text also says Iran will hold dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman. That dialogue would define future administration and maritime services.

Iran first threatened vessels without taking direct action. That led some operators to test Iranian enforcement and try rescues of ships stuck for weeks. On the day before June 25, S&P Global recorded 78 vessels passing the strait. That figure included at least five large oil tankers, each carrying up to 2 million barrels.

Even 78 transits remained below the 130 or more seen before the war. Still, oil prices had fallen back to prewar levels. That shift had raised hopes of a gradual return to normal operations. The drone strike then revived concerns about security and route access.

Strait of Hormuz shipping data shows cautious route choices

Ship traffic has continued, but not at the pace seen before the first Iranian strike. A UN International Maritime Organisation humanitarian evacuation has remained suspended. Windward reported 44 transits on Sunday, with 24 inbound and 20 outbound. It said the strait stayed open without disrupting freedom of navigation.

Windward also said most traffic shifted north under Iranian coordination. It noted multiple sanctioned tankers crossed on Sunday. The firm reported higher activity by IGRC speedboats. Around 60 speedboats patrolled in swarms near the US-overseen southern corridor.

MarineTraffic.com counted 108 crossings over the weekend. It said 39 used the US-backed Omani route and 37 used the Iranian route. Another 23 were listed as unknown after ships switched off location systems. Nine used a middle route that had been common before the war.

MarineTraffic.com posted on X that the pattern showed ongoing caution by operators. The split suggested firms were still weighing danger rather than returning to older routines. Some ships going "dark\" also signalled heightened concern about tracking and targeting. These choices kept overall volumes below pre-crisis patterns.

Strait of Hormuz oil prices stay steady as supplies adjust

Oil markets largely stayed calm despite the renewed attacks. Brent crude rose 0.9 per cent on Friday to USD 72.67 at 1430 GMT. That was close to its last close before the war of USD 72.48. Traders appeared to keep focusing on the earlier memorandum’s promise of talks.

The International Energy Agency said other factors also reduced pressure on prices. Consumers cut fuel use after higher costs. IEA member governments released emergency stocks. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates expanded pipeline routes that bypass the strait, while US exports also rose.

The IEA also flagged a sharp shift in China’s demand. China’s oil imports fell 40 per cent between February and May. China partly met needs by drawing down strong reserves. In the US, petrol prices fell below USD 4 per gallon, averaging USD 3.86 as of Monday.

Strait of Hormuz legal concerns and talks timeline remain unclear

Several international law experts have said Tehran’s control demands clash with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. The treaty took effect in 1994 and calls for peaceful passage. Experts warned that similar disputes could spread to other chokepoints. They cited the Straits of Malacca as an example.

Diplomacy remains uncertain alongside the military pause. The interim deal gave both sides 60 days to negotiate wider issues. These include the strait, Iran’s nuclear programme, and Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Talks also cover ending fighting in Lebanon involving Israel and Hezbollah.

Trump said Monday on social media that Iran had requested a meeting with US counterparts. However, one of Irans top negotiators said no further talks had been scheduled. With traffic still moving but uneven, shipping firms and energy markets continued tracking both security risks and political signals.

With inputs from PTI