Tata Group Stock To Buy: 3 Reasons To Buy Tata Steel Shares For A Target Price of Rs 219 In 6-9 Months

One of the largest steel firms in the world, Tata Steel Group, can produce over 35 million tons of steel per year. In terms of crude steel output (31 mtpa) in 2024, the group came in at number ten in the world, according to the World Steel Association (WSA). The brokerage firm Axis Securities has selected Tata Steel as its pick of the week for a target price of Rs 219 in a timeframe of 6 to 9 months. This implies a potential upside of 14.66% from the current market price of Rs 191 based on 9 Mar, 12:42 pm IST.

Why To Buy Tata Steel Shares?

As per the research analysts of Axis Securities, here are the 3 reasons to buy Tata Steel.

A. Indian steel expansion visibility improves: Tata Steel's Indian operations' volumes will be higher YoY in FY27, led by the absence of BF relining along with the start of the 0.75 EAF plant at Ludhiana in H1FY27. In the interim leading to FY30, downstream capex on Kalinganagar CRM complex and Jamshedpur Combi mill, alongside capacity additions in tubes and high-end wires, will enrich the product mix. Meaningful upstream growth will resume post FY29 with the commissioning of 4.8 MTPA NINL expansion (EC expected shortly), followed by the Meramandali expansion and Maharashtra greenfield plants. Net Debt-to-EBITDA during expansion will be maintained at ~3.0x (at 2.6x now).

B. TSN Policy Reset (CBAM + safeguards) Structurally Supportive; benefits will be phased out: TSN Q3 EBITDA stood at €55 Mn (€39/t), down 39% QoQ as lower sales volumes (1.4 MT) and a 50% US tariff on high-margin exports were only partially offset by €21/t in cost improvements. Although Q4 realizations may dip by ~€30/t due to packaging contract renewals and shifting product mix, the outlook remains positive with 60-65% of volumes linked to spot prices. Management anticipates a phased €70100/t price uplift through CY26, fueled by CBAM and potential Jun'26 tariff hikes that are expected to raise the marginal cost of imports and strengthen regional spread.

C. UK Remains Policy-dependent; Transition to EAF Ongoing: UKEBITDA losses held flat at £63 Mn as substantial cumulative cost reductions of £400-500 Mn over recent years (including Rs 570 Cr this quarter) helped mitigate weak demand and cheap imports. Achieving EBITDA breakeven remains contingent on a £75-100/t spread expansion and urgent government recalibration of import quotas. Despite these headwinds, the 3 MTPA EAF transition remains on track to eliminate long-term structural cost disadvantages.

Tata Steel Share Price Outlook

"Onaconsolidated basis, Tata Steel's EBITDA will be better in Q4FY26 QoQ, with volumes increasing by almost 0.5 MT QoQ. Higher steel prices in India will offset higher coking coal consumption cost which will drive higher spreads in Q4FY26. Capex sequencing will remain aligned to balance sheet strength, preserving flexibility through the cycle. Also, Cost transformation continues to anchor earnings despite macro volatility. Tata Steel is currently trading at 6.8x 12MF consensus EV/EBITDAvs. LT average of 6.7x," commented the research analysts of Axis Securities.

Tata Steel Share Price Trend

Tata Steel Ltd.'s share price on the NSE is Rs 191.17 as of March 9, 2026, at 12:47 PM IST. Significantly lower than its previous closing price of Rs 198.46, the stock began the day at Rs 193.45. It reached an intraday high of Rs 193.70 throughout the morning before dropping to a low of Rs 187.03. The share price dropped by 3.67% to Rs 191.17 around 12:47 PM IST. Tata Steel has had volatility over the last year, with a 52-week high of Rs 216.45 and a low of Rs 125.30.

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