Trade Setup Friday: Exit Polls, GDP, IPO Listing Among Key Factors To Influence Market's Mood

Indian market is likely to open in green on Friday tracking positive cues in global shares. However, cautious betting could also arise ahead of the poll outcomes in 5 states. Nevertheless, both GDP growth and the eight core industries index have witnessed stellar upside, and this is likely to comfort bulls in domestic equities. Yesterday, Sensex neared its 67,000 mark, and Nifty 50 stayed over 20,100 levels.

In the early trade, Gift Nifty surged and traded in the range of 20,169 to 20,010.5. Meanwhile, Wall Street settled on a mixed note with the Nasdaq Composite index falling by 0.2%. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average shot up by over 500 points or 1.5%, nearing its new closing high for 2023, and the of S&P 500 index also gained by 0.4%.

Also, Asian shares neared their 10-month high level after hopes of ending in rate hike cycle from the US Federal Reserve escalated which dragged the dollar index against a basket of world currencies. In November month, the MSCI Asia-ex-Japan stocks zoomed by nearly 7%.

Coming to Friday, markets will react to the upcoming exit poll results of five states Mizoram, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Telangana scheduled on December 3rd which falls during the weekend. Notably, polls in these five states have seen participation from 8.2 crore male and 7.8 crore female voters out of which 60.2 lakh people are first-time voters.

Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities said, "Markets were volatile on the expiry day, but Dow Jones Futures indicating a positive start for US markets and gains in other Asian indices helped local markets clock modest gains at the close. However, caution prevailed amongst the investors ahead of the exit poll results of five states later, and the market could see a knee-jerk reaction in the next trading session."

On November 30th, the Sensex ended at 66,988.44, up by 86.53 points or 0.13%, while the Nifty 50 finished at 20,133.15, higher by 36.55 points or 0.18%. IPOs like Tata Technologies, FedFina, Rockingdeals, and Gandhar Oil had made bumper debut on exchanges and saw massive buying.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services said, India's GDP growth upgrade to 6.4% from 6.0% for FY24 by S&P Global Rating has bought optimism to the broad market. The Nifty50 could cross the psychological level of 20,000 and be able to sustain the gains providing long-term support. Bold performance of the global markets and IPOs listing are adding glitters to mid & small caps. State exit poll and the final result slated to be announced on Sunday may bring some cautiousness.

Also, Siddhartha Khemka, Head - of Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd said,"Bumper listing was seen in Tata Technologies and Gandhar Oil IPO, while Fedbank Financials saw a subdued listing. Tatatech and Gandhar both listed at premium of 1.4x and 76% respectively. Markets on Friday will react to Exit poll outcome and India's GDP data. Overall we expect positive trend to continue in the market. Auto stocks will be in focus as OEMs will announce their monthly sales data on Friday.

To investors, Ajit Mishra, SVP - Technical Research, Religare Broking said, "We have almost reached the record high now after three days of advance and may take a breather now. However, rotational buying across sectors would keep the tone positive. We thus suggest utilizing an intermediate pause or a dip to add quality names."

In its technical outlook on Nifty, Rupak De, Senior Technical analyst at LKP Securities said, "Nifty ended close to the day's high on a choppy expiry day. The sentiment remains strong as long as it stays above 20000 since the Put writers at the 20000 strike will defend this level moving forward. The sentiment might weaken only if there's a drop below 20000; until then, the buy-on-dips strategy is likely to stay prevalent. On the higher side, 20200-20230 acts as a resistance zone. If breached, the index could potentially move towards 20450-20500."

While on Bank Nifty, Kunal Shah, Senior Technical & Derivative analyst at LKP Securities said, "The Bank Nifty index experienced heightened volatility on the last day of the monthly expiry, navigating a broad trading range. Facing immediate resistance at 44700, a level associated with a previous correction, a breakout above this point is anticipated to trigger additional short-covering moves towards 45000. The lower end support is situated at the 44300-44200 zone, acting as a supportive cushion for the bulls."

Additionally, the largest IT firm in India, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) Rs 17,000 buyback offer will open on December 1, which will also have effect on stock exchanges performance.