Timeline Of How India-Canada Relationship Bittered! What Is At Stake? From Investment-To-Student Visas

India-Canada Row: In a fresh round of expulsion of diplomats, the tension between India and Canada has intensified further. Although, India and Canada had their fair share of disagreements and dismissal since late 1990s, the soured relation between the country escalated after killing of Sikh separatist, Hardeep Singh Nijjar since June last year. India and Canada have decades-long bilateral relationship, with hundreds of companies and investors at both side.

Economically, bilateral ties with India could yield a GDP gain of $ 3.8-5.9 billion for Canada.

As per IBEF, it is estimated that the India-Canada Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between Canada and India would boost bilateral trade by US$ 4.4-6.5 billion (C$ 6-8.8 billion) and yield a GDP gain of US$ 3.8-5.9 billion (C$ 5.1-8 billion) for Canada by 2035.

Here is a glimpse of Canada's economic, trade and market-related relationships:

It needs to be noted that India is a key partner as Canada strengthens its economic links to the Indo-Pacific under a new, comprehensive strategy for the region, IBEF cited.

For instance, in 2022, India was the ninth-largest merchandise trading partner for Canada, the 13th-largest merchandise trading partner globally, and the 14th-largest destination for merchandise exports. Meanwhile, data from IBEF showed that the two countries also achieved 8.27 billion in bilateral trade relations in FY23, and $ 5.3 billion between April and November 2023.

Economic Relations: In its latest report, dated December 2023, the Ministry of External Affairs, revealed that the trade and investment linkages between India and Canada form an integral component of the multi-faceted partnership between the two countries.

However, notably, India's exports to Canada is higher than the imports from the latter.

Data from MEA highlighted that between January - and October 2023, the bilateral trade between the two countries was valued at about $7.65 billion. Of the total, India's exports amounted to $4.70 billion, while the country's imports from Canada stood at $2.95 billion.

This is compared to bilateral trade of $10.50 billion in overall 2022 - where India's exports accounted for $6.40 billion and imports were at $ 4.10 billion, which MEA data said ' is well below the business potential of the two countries."

Moreover, in FY23, IBEF highlighted that India exported 5,143 commodities to Canada, which is more than double the imports of 2,054 commodities.

Between April - November 2023, major exported items from India to Canada include pharmaceutical products (US$ 274.05 million); followed by nuclear reactors, boilers, and parts (US$ 195.46 million), electrical machinery (US$ 160.68 million), and articles of iron and steel (US$ 156.03 million), etc.

While major items imported from Canada included include petroleum products (US$ 608.17 million); followed by edible vegetables (US$ 420.60 million) fertilizers (US$ 337.63 million), pearls, precious metals, and stones (US$ 200.80 million), pulp and wastepaper (US$ 192.79 million), and electrical machinery and equipment (US$ 114.84 million), etc.

What Are The Exports? Majorly, India's exports to Canada include goods related to sectors like --- gems, jewellery and precious stones, pharmaceutical products, ready-made garments, mechanical appliances, organic chemicals, light engineering goods, iron & steel articles, etc. India's imports from Canada include pulses, newsprint, wood pulp, asbestos, potash, iron scrap, copper, minerals industrial chemicals, etc.

Companies: Further, as per the data, there are over 600 Canadian companies that are present in India, and over 1,000 companies are actively pursuing business in the Indian market.

Meanwhile, Indian companies in key sectors such as Information Technology, software, steel, natural resources and banking sectors - hold branches in Canada.

Investment: Indian market-related instruments have been among attractive bets for Canadian investors. Data pointed out that Canadian Pension Funds have cumulatively invested over $ 75 billion in India and are increasingly viewing India as a favourable destination for investments.

Education: Education is of key interest for both India and Canada. At present, India is the largest source country of foreign students with an estimated 230,000 Indian students studying in Canada, as per MEA data.

As of now, reportedly, 40% of international students in Canada belong to India. Further, these Indian students contribution to Canada's economy is to the tune of $16.3 billion.

Timeline Of India-Canada Row:

June 18, 2023: The tensions between India-Canada blew out after the assassination of Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, who is identified as a terrorist by India.

September 18: Three months later, Justin Trudeau, the Prime Minister of Canada, during his address in the House of Commons, accused India of involving in the the killing of Najjar. He had said that the Canadian security agencies were actively pursuing allegations of potential involvement of India.

September 19: India denied the allegations.

This led to a prolonged diplomatic stand-off between the countries. Canada paused talks on a proposed trade treaty with India and announced the postponement of an October trade mission to India. Both the countries expelled diplomatic staff, claiming interference in the other's internal affairs, as per Wikipedia.

September 20, 2023: India directed its citizens against travelling to Canada due to the latter's growing anti-India activities.

September 21, 2023: India temporarily suspended the issuance of visas for Canadian nationals due to "security threats" against its diplomats.

September 24, 2023: Following India, Canada updated its travel advisory for India, directing its citizens to exercise caution when travelling to India due to their "negative sentiment towards Canada".

April 2024: the Canadian deputy high commissioner was summoned by India after separatist slogans supporting a Sikh homeland were allegedly raised at a Vaisakhi event addressed by Prime Minister Trudeau, Wikipedia mentioned.

In June 2024, In this month, both PM Modi and Trudeau briefly met at the G7 summit in Italy, which came as a comfort as it hinted at the resumption of dialogue and lowered diplomatic tensions.

October 12, 2024: Matters further escalated when Canada officials announced that Ajit Doval who is India's National Security Advisor, along with Sanjay Kumar Verma, the Indian High Commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma, and five other diplomats were expelled from the American country, due to interest in various investigations. This followed the announcement of the recalling of six Canadian diplomats from India, however, the Indian government has not confirmed if the plan took place.