US Election 2024: Kamala Harris Vs Donald Trump; Whose Win Will Change The Face Of Geopolitical Uncertainties?

US election 2024: The United States Presidential Election 2024 is all set to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. All eyes will be on Kamala Harris and Donald Trump who are in a face-off for the presidential seat. Kamala represents the Democrats, while Trump comes from the Republican party. The 2024 election is crucial and its results matter even more so for the global economy. Why? Either Harris or Trump's win will have its implications in the geopolitical uncertainties that have grappled global economy on loop. The two candidates will have their impact on tensions in the Middle East, Ukraine, and China.

In its latest report, Dhanske Bank said, "The US election outcome could swing US foreign policy going forward. While Kamala Harris would most likely represent status quo in most issues, the re-election of Donald Trump could lead to significant policy changes and add a factor of unpredictability."

Here are some of the major events that have sparked geopolitical risks in 2024, highlighted by Danske.

January 2024: In Taiwan, DPP wins the election however with the weaker mandate. The second key major event was the disruption in the trade route at the Red Sea due to the Houthi attacks. This is still ongoing.

February 2024: Amidst Kremlin-Ukraine war, Putin's opposition leader Navalny dies in prison.

March 2024: Wide-scale terrorist attack in Russia, while Putin reportedly wins a staged election.

April 2024: IDF of Israel takes down key military personnel's of Iran and its proxies. For instance, Israel strikes an Iranian consulate in Syria, which in return led to a wider barrage of missile attacks on Israeli soil by Iran for the first time. IDF retaliated back with an attack on Isfahan.

Additionally, the US under Joe Biden okayed a fresh $61 billion package for Ukraine.

May 2024: IDF proceeds with its ground operation in Rafah despite massive backlash on social media in the West.

June 2024: Chinese electric vehicles face a setback as the European Union hikes tariffs on imports in the month.

July 2024: Key leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah were eliminated in Beirut and Teheran. These included Hamas' political leader Ismail Haniyeh Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, and Iranian military adviser Milad Bedi.

August 2024: Ukraine advances further into the Russian territory.

September 2024: Amidst operation in Rafah, Israel's IDF response to Hezbollah's airstrikes escalates, with tensions rising in Lebanon. Also, Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah was assassinated.

October 2024: North Korea sends aid as soldiers to Russia's war in Ukraine, while Iran-Israeli tensions heighten with the Islamic regime launching a second round of missile attacks on the Jewish country.

Here's how a win of either Harris or Trump will play a key role in Geopolitical Tensions:

Middle East:

As per Danske Bank's report, the Biden administration's public support for Israel remains unwavering, but it is widely known that behind closed doors Biden has harshly criticised Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Harris, most likely, would follow in Biden's footsteps, calling for a ceasefire and trying to make sure the Middle East does not spiral into an all-out regional war, but also giving assurance that the US has its ally's back.

However, on the other hand, Trump is known for his pro-Israel policies, and his current campaign continues to receive strong backing from the US evangelical movement. Danske said, "We think his re-election would increase the likelihood of the war escalating."

Danske Bank also believes that under Trump's watch, the US might re-calibrate their approach and give Netanyahu a free pass to make a move on the Islamist regime of Iran, regardless of the consequences.

When Trump was the President, he made several bold policy moves such as recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel - which led to an alteration in the US foreign policy stance in the Middle East. Notably, these altered foreign policy stances have not been cancelled by the Biden administration.

Danske, however, also sheds light that Trump deserves some credit for his "art of dealmaking", as he was the key architect driving the normalisation of ties between Israel and Arab countries under the Abraham Accords.

Overall, the bank believes Trump's approach to the Middle East favoured the financial interests and businesses of his family members, and this would likely be the case also for his second term in office.

Russia-Ukraine War:

Trump has on several occasions vowed to end the war between the Kremlin and Ukraine. However, at the latest development, the war seems to escalate with North Korea stepping up for its partner Russia by sending about 10,000 troops to join the war against Ukraine.

Danske Bank believes Trump's re-election raises the possibility of near-term peace in Europe, at the cost of Europe's long-term security. On the other hand, Trump's re-election and his reluctance to support European security could encourage European governments to step up investments on defence.

China-Related News:

"For Asia ex-China, the two candidate's approaches would be different, but both candidates would aim to collaborate with Asian economies in a way that would support the US in its strategic competition with China, e.g. continuing to diversify supply chains," the bank's note said.

Overall, in geopolitical tensions, Harris leans towards multi- and minilateralism, Trump prefers a transactional approach and bilateralism.