US-Russia diesel deal and Trump’s Zelenskyy remarks strengthen Kremlin leverage in Ukraine war

An agreement between Moscow and Washington on exporting Russian diesel, plus fresh US criticism of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has strengthened the Kremlin’s position. The changes mark a rollback from years of sanctions tied to Russia’s full-scale invasion. Analysts said the diesel revenue could aid Moscow’s war funding, while political effects may matter even more.

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Russia’s diesel volumes are limited and may not move global prices much. Still, the income could help Moscow refill funds for the war. Observers also said the deal risks weakening unity between Kyiv and European partners. This comes as Russia keeps hitting Ukraine’s energy systems and key infrastructure across the country.

Russian diesel exports and sanctions shift

Mark Galeotti, who leads the Mayak Intelligence consultancy, called the move a striking win for President Vladimir Putin. Galeotti said Trump’s announcement on Friday looked like a late gift, two days after Putin turned 74. Galeotti added it matters even if no diesel ships. Galeotti said it deepens tension between Trump and Zelenskyy.

Ahead of next month’s midterm elections, Trump linked a rise in diesel prices to Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. The US-led war in Iran has also pushed global energy prices higher. Kyiv has criticised the diesel arrangement as a sign of weakness. Zelenskyy said an energy pause should include an end to strikes on Ukraine’s power grid.

Energy truce claims and Russian attacks on Ukraine energy

Trump said on Sunday that Moscow and Kyiv had agreed to an energy truce with immediate effect. Zelenskyy said Russian forces still struck Ukraine’s energy facilities after that statement. Russia has not confirmed any such ceasefire. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday only that contacts are continuing between the sides.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov dismissed Zelenskyy’s comments as self-serving. "I dont think he deserves a respite,\" Lavrov said. Galeotti said Putin is unlikely to stop attacks on energy sites. Galeotti described such strikes as central to Russia’s winter air war strategy against Ukraine.

Russia has increased aerial pressure in recent months using ballistic missiles and new jet-powered drones. Analysts said Moscow has exploited Ukraine’s shortage of US-made Patriot interceptors. Stockpiles have been reduced during the war in Iran. Putin has said Moscow wants a broad, long-term settlement rather than a short pause.

Peskov also addressed Zelenskyy’s view that Ukraine needs at least 60 days to prepare elections. Peskov said Putin could order a ceasefire only on the day of voting. No wider commitment was outlined by Moscow. The remarks added to uncertainty over what any energy truce would cover in practice.

Ukraine strikes on Russian refineries and diesel supply doubts

Ukraine has hit Russia’s oil sector in recent months, according to the Ukrainian Defence Ministry. The ministry said strikes disabled more than half of Russia’s refining capacity. The damage led to a fuel crisis and long queues at filling stations. Ukraine also hit oil terminals at Novorossiysk and targeted tankers at sea.

Putin acknowledged the impact but said Moscow could strike Ukraine much harder. Some officials and analysts questioned if Russia can meet diesel export supplies under the deal. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski raised doubts and cited shortages in Russia’s capital. Others argued diesel supply is higher after harvest season demand ended.

Janis Kluge, from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said Russia planned higher diesel exports anyway. Still, some Russian drivers feared domestic shortages could worsen. \"I dont think thats very good, because you can see whats going on at gas stations -- people are standing in line around the clock,\" said Marat Salavatov at a Moscow station.

Russian officials said domestic stability will be protected. \"The volume of production is able to fully satisfy the needs of the local market while delivering the agreed amounts to the global market,\" Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said. The statement announced the end of a diesel export ban that had applied since July.

Trump criticism of Zelenskyy and impact on Ukraine support

Trump also delivered sharp comments about Zelenskyy, worsening relations after their Oval Office meeting in February 2025. Trump suggested Ukraine should choose a new leader. Russian state television highlighted the remarks, and pro-Kremlin commentators repeated them widely. Kyiv officials saw the timing as linked to US midterm politics.

Oleksandr Merezhko, a lawmaker from Zelenskyy’s party, said Kyiv views the moves as scapegoating. \"We are not happy when our ally and partner gives money to a dictator who is killing us,\" Merezhko said. Merezhko added that Trump’s pressure on refinery strikes looks like support for Russia’s war effort over civilians.

Kyiv also fears sanctions relief without Russian concessions may reduce Washington’s leverage. Ukraine depends on US support, including Patriot systems and intelligence sharing. Any disruption could increase Ukraine’s vulnerability. Galeotti said Trump’s framing of Zelenskyy as blocking peace was a key benefit for Putin.

Galeotti said the shift also complicates the European Union’s push against Russia’s so-called shadow fleet. Galeotti said Europe is now \"obviously just regarded as a vassal region that has to accept whatever policy comes from the White House.\" Galeotti added the diesel deal may help Russia’s standing with developing countries.

Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Centre said the move could appear as a success for Putin. \"He has secured an economic deal, albeit a modest one, before a peace settlement, departing from Washingtons previous position,\" Stanovaya said. Stanovaya said Putin may intensify pressure to trigger political breakdown in Ukraine.

Dmitry Medvedev urged caution about reading too much into Trump’s words. \"Only our guys, ballistics and Geranium drones make victory closer,\" Medvedev said. The comment came as Russia continued its strikes and Ukraine faced pressure on air defences. The combined developments left Kyiv and European partners watching Washington’s next steps.

With inputs from PTI