US Stock Market Cautious Ahead Of Nonfarm Payrolls Report; Dow Jones, Nasdaq, SP 500 Futures Volatile; Outlook

The US stock futures traded volatile in the early hours of Friday, tracking the cautious tone of the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 overnight as investors await the September jobs report scheduled today. The nonfarm payroll report is expected to provide fresh clues on the US Federal Reserve's upcoming policy stance. Currently, the market is predicting a 75% probability of a rate hike from the Fed this month. Also, quarterly earnings of mega giants will continue to set the tone for Wall Street. Notably, US equities have faced a seesaw-like movement due to treasury yields that hit multi-decade highs and a rising dollar.

US Stock Futures Today, October 2, 2026

At the time of writing, the Dow Jones futures traded at 51,213, down marginally by 28 points. On the contrary, the Nasdaq 100 futures gained by 56 points or 0.2% to trade at 30,816.50, while the S&P 500 index is mildly up by 3 points to trade around 7,726.75.

US stock futures were little changed on Friday as investors cautiously awaited the September jobs report, which could provide fresh clues on the health of the labor market and shape expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy. However, markets will require a higher threshold for a strong jobs report to warrant bets on a Fed rate hike this month, with traders currently assigning roughly a 75% probability to rates remaining unchanged, as per Trading Economics report.

Furthermore, investors continue to trace the development in Middle East as geopolitical crisis escalated as US is likely planning to deploy another aircraft carrier and additional troops in the region. This will further disrupt already beaten energy supplies.

Apart from this, major quarterly results added to the market sentiment.

Dow Jones + Nasdaq + S&P 500

Overnight, the Dow Jones Industrial Average or DJIA market closed at 50,926.56, up by 20.51 points. The S&P 500 index also performed narrowly to end at 7,666.45, higher by 15 points or 0.2%. The tech-heavy index, Nasdaq Composite, closed at 26,871.60, up by 10.53 points.

Large-cap stock, Nike, crashed around 9% after the retailer posted a disappointing quarter. Nike reported a revenue of $11.21 billion in fiscal first quarter, lower from street estimates of $11.32 billion, while its net income also declined 2% to $712 million compared to same quarter a year. Not just that, Nike has lowered its revenue guidance for the full-year and expects it to decline by a high-single digit percentage in the financial year 2027. Nike estimates adjusted earnings per share to range from $1.15 to $1.35.

On the other hand, Accenture stock witnessed a strong rally of nearly 16% after its upbeat quarterly earnings. The tech giant's revenue came in stronger than expected in further quarter of fiscal year 2026, to $18.68 billion from $17.6 billion a year ago, while net income climbed nearly 41% to $1.99 billion from $1.413 billion a year ago same period. For the fiscal 2027, Accenture expects revenue growth in the range of 3% to 6%, which is slower than the 6.5% jump in 2025 fiscal revenues.

Apart from these two stocks, tech giants also played a role in defining market trend. Nvidia was up 1%, Apple and Alphabet declined nearly 1% and 2%. Stocks like SpaceX and Broadcom also dropped 2% each, while Samsung and Eli Lilly dipped nearly 1%. On the contrary, Micron shares rallied over 3%.

Furthermore, Trading Economics data said, investors also tracked geopolitical developments as the US considered deploying another aircraft carrier and additional troops to the Middle East, potentially escalating the conflict with Iran and causing further disruptions to regional energy supplies. In corporate news, Anthropic is reportedly exploring plans to go public as early as mid-November. During regular trading on Thursday, the S&P 500 rose 0.19%, while the Dow and Nasdaq Composite each edged up 0.04% as Treasury yields retreated from multi-decade highs.

US Stock Market Outlook

On Friday, economic reports like Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, Average Workweek, Business Inventories, Factory Orders, and Unemployment Rate are scheduled.

However, only one quarterly result of Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) is scheduled.

As per analysts at Axis Securities, the Fed raised interest rates by a quarter-point last week, its first increase in three years, and signalled further hikes ahead. Traders are pricing in a 66% chance of an October hike and a 93% chance of one in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Traders will closely watch this week's inflation print and Nonfarm Payrolls data, which may influence the Fed's monetary policy.

MUUFG forecasts September 2026 nonfarm payrolls (NFP) to grow by 90k, in line with the median of 85k from Bloomberg contributors, and slightly above the 3-month average growth of 71k. The unemployment rate (U/R) is expected to remain at 4.1% in September, in line with the median estimate from Bloomberg contributors. A slight drop in labor force participation of older workers (55 & over), consistent with growth in those not in the labor force due to retirement, can offset improvements in participation of prime age workers (25-54). However, an uptick in job losses MoM, driven by normal volatility, can push unemployment up to 4.2%.

As per MUUFG, given the larger than normal rates move, and then a reversal in the day leading up to this NFP report, a consensus figure that reinforces the "stable" labor market narrative is unlikely to elicit a strong market reaction. However, the current momentum can carry into Friday morning, with a small rally across the rates curve, led by the front-end with expectations of an October hike falling further.

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