US Stock Market Weekly Outlook For June 29-July 3: Key Factors That Will Drive Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500

US stock futures traded mildly higher in the early hours of Monday, June 29, after the President Donald Trump administration reportedly called for halting any fresh exchanges of airstrikes and drone attacks between the US and Iran ahead of peace talks in Doha later this week.

On Monday, Wall Street will react to the latest Iran strikes on US infrastructure in Bahrain and Kuwait, to which the US responded by launching multiple airstrikes in various locations of the Islamic Republic. Tehran threatened to halt peace negotiations, while Trump warned he would eliminate Iran completely if they did not comply.

According to Trading Economics, the conflict escalated since Thursday, with Iran targeting a container ship, a vessel carrying Qatari oil, and military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, triggering multiple retaliatory US strikes. Meanwhile, Wall Street is coming off a mixed week as investors rotated out of technology stocks and into other sectors.

Following the new hostilities during the weekend, crude oil prices opened higher on Monday with US WTI Crude Oil gaining by over 1% but still trading below $70 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent Crude surged over 0.6% to trade near $73 per barrel.

Also, the US dollar strengthened to trade around 101.3, which was little change from last week when the DXY touched an over-1-year high.

The Dow Jones futures are up by 0.3%, while the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures gained by more than 0.5% each on June 29, at the time of writing.

US Stock Market Last Week

Last week, Dow Jones outperformed its counterparts with 0.62% weekly gains to end at 51,876.11. Meanwhile, S&P 500 index plunged nearly 2% in the week to close at 7,354.02. However, the Nasdaq Composite took the worst hit with nearly 5% decline to end at 25,297.62.

Major tech behemoths led the bearish trend with Nvidia and Alphabet each dropping more than 8%, while Apple, Amazon, and Meta crashing by over 4% apiece. Notably, SpaceX also nosedived by 17%, erasing nearly all of its gains since its market debut on June 12.

Experts pointed out that there is a divergence in Wall Street with selloffs in tech stocks and money rotating to non-tech areas of Wall Street.

In a note, Nathan Peterson, Director of Derivatives Research and Strategy for the Charles Schwab, said, one of the catalysts impacting the tech sector was a 10% overnight drop in the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) on Tuesday, which is mostly made up of tech/memory giants SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. Reports indicated that the swift drop was related to some de-leveraging of speculative positions.

He pointed out that keep in mind that margin debt in the U.S. hit a record $1.42 trillion in May, in nominal terms. Additionally, year-over-year margin debt growth was recently reported to be more than 50%, a rate not seen since 2007 and is considered by some to indicate speculative excess. This week's selloff in tech likely wrung some of the leverage out of the system, but it's too early to say whether a sufficient washout has occurred on a near-term basis.

"One last note: some of the selloff in the tech space, which has been a stellar performer over the past three months, may be related to quarter-end rebalancing by major market players such as pensions and sovereign wealth funds," he said.

US Stock Market Weekly Outlook

Peterson is 'Moderately Bearish for the trading week between June 29 to July 3, especially for the technology space. He said, "if tech continues to see additional selling pressure early next week, it's possible that money flows back into that space after Tuesday (i.e. quarter end)."

But overall, he believes investors sentiment and price action to have shifted bearish recently and hence his outlook is 'cautious' for Wall Street.

Peterson's note said, "There are still a couple days left in the quarter, next week is holiday shortened due to July 4th, and we'll be getting the monthly jobs report, so I expect volatility will be higher than normal."

Adding, he said, "While the broadening of the rally appears to be intact, and lower oil prices and yields are net bullish, I'm concerned about tech in the near-term. Part of the reason is due to the technical divergence I referenced, but I'm also concerned that the sector may be susceptible to some additional deleveraging."

Key Reports To Watch Out Next Week:

Monday June 29, 2026:

There will be no economic or other reports on Monday. However, companies like AeroVironment Inc. (AVAV), Concentrix Corp. (CNXC), Quantum Corp. (QMCO) will announce their quarterly earnings which will see stock-specific action.

Tuesday, June 30, 2026:

For US market, investors will await data such as Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence, FHFA Housing Price Index, and S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index on Tuesday.

Companies scheduled for quarterly results include Barnes & Noble Education Inc. (BNED), Constellation Brands (STZ), Nike Inc. (NKE), and Progress Software Corp. (PRGS).

Wednesday, July 1, 2026:

Data like ADP Employment Change, Construction Spending, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, ISM Manufacturing Index, and MBA Mortgage Applications Index are scheduled on Wednesday.

Among earnings, stocks like FactSet Research Systems Inc. (FDS), General Mills Inc. (GIS), Greenbrier Companies Inc. (GBX), MSC Industrial Direct Co. (MSM), National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ), and UniFirst Corp. (UNF) will be in focus.

Thursday, July 2, 2026:

Investors will await key economic data such as Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, and Average Workweek.

Also, companies like Anavex Life Sciences Corp. (AVXL), Bitmine Immersion Technologies Inc. (BMNR), and Lindsay Corp. (LNN) will be in focus for their corporate results.

Friday, July 3, 2026:

There are no earnings or reports on Friday.