US Stock Market Cautious Ahead Of US Midterm Election Polls: Futures Trend Mixed, Nov 3rd Wall Street Outlook

The US stock market witnessed a cautious momentum as Americans prepare to cast their votes between Democrats and Republicans on November 3, 2026, in the midterm election. The Dow Jones rallied, but the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 index ended in red overnight. In the early hours of Tuesday, US stock futures showed mixed performance with Dow futures dropping. The US midterm elections are the next trigger for the global market. The odds are in favour of Democrats, which is expected to limit war funding and trade wars and impact the world's largest economy's fiscal policy. However, if Donald Trump's administration wins, it will be the surprise the market isn't prepared for.

Dow Jones + Nasdaq + S&P 500

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 51,983.98, higher by 213.67 points or 0.41% on Monday. On the contrary, the Nasdaq Composite took the worst hit, dropping by 1.07% or 272.63 points to close at 25,164.36. Further, the S&P 500 index ended lower by 38.67 points or 0.51% to 7,541.40.

"Wall Street ended mixed, with gains across most U.S. stocks and a rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average offset by continued selling in AI-related shares that weighed on the Nasdaq. The weakness has spilled over into Asian markets, where technology stocks are leading a sharp regional decline," said Hariselvan Radhakrishnan, Founder & CEO of HST Wealth.

On the corporate front, Apple shares dropped nearly 3% in after-hours trading following slower sales growth and weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue guidance. Palantir also declined almost 3% despite reporting stronger-than-anticipated Q3 earnings. Meanwhile, Anthropic reported a twelvefold increase in quarterly revenue and outlined plans to invest more than $895 billion over the coming years. Investors are now turning their attention to a series of earnings releases due Tuesday from major companies, including AMD, SMCI, Pfizer, Shopify and Booking Holdings, as per Trading Economics.

US Stock Futures Today, November 3, 2026:

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Dow Jones futures slipped by 143 points or 0.27% to trade at 51,990. On the contrary, the Nasdaq 100 futures climbed by 123.50 points or 0.44% to trade at 28,251, while the S&P 500 futures edged higher by 3.50 points to trade at 7,578.

The stock futures showed mixed trend as US citizens prepare to visit the polls for midterm elections. The Trump's administration and his Republican Party is facing mounting political pressures amidst energy crisis due to the Iran conflict.

US Midterm Election Polls:

The voting for US midterm election will begin on November 3. As per The Conversation polls, the Democrats have an 82% chance of gaining control of the Senate in the US midterm elections this week, and remain overwhelming favourites to gain control of the House of Representatives in US analyst Nate Silver's forecast model. In the last week, there has been clear movement to Democrats in the Senate.

The Democrats are expected to lead Republicans by 8-9.4 points on generic ballot. It is said that if Republican's do unexpectedly better than what market prepared for, the reason could be the latest decline in petrol prices in September 2026. So far though, the Wall Street has corrected sharply.

In October 2026 month, the Nasdaq 100 sank by 2,023.65 points or 6.65% and Nasdaq Composite crashed by 1,424.06 points or 5.30% due to erosion of $2 trillion in tech stocks as investors turned wary over AI infrastructure spending and whether it could give sustainable growth in future and quickly. Also, the S&P 500 dropped 1% but Dow Jones added 1.7%.

Wall Street Outlook Today, November 3, 2026:

As per the expert, the U.S. midterm elections are the next major global trigger, with investors watching for implications for fiscal policy, trade and the Iran conflict. Until the outcome and its policy signals become clearer, lower crude oil prices could offer Indian equities some relative support, even as weakness in global technology stocks weighs on sentiment.

In Radhakrishnan's opinion, investors sentiment has found support in a sharp correction in global crude oil prices, offering some relief on the macroeconomic front. Brent crude has retreated towards $105 a barrel as Qatar-mediated exchanges between the U.S. and Iran have raised hopes of progress towards ending the conflict and restoring normal energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The decline has unwound a significant portion of the immediate geopolitical risk premium, although the diplomatic process remains uncertain and OPEC+ has left its December production targets unchanged.

Furthermore, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money said, global signals remain mixed. Wall Street ended Monday's session on a mixed note, with the Dow Jones advancing as oil prices retreated, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq came under pressure amid concerns over escalating artificial intelligence spending and elevated technology-sector valuations. Investors are also adopting a cautious stance ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, with the outcome likely to influence expectations surrounding fiscal policy, government spending and bond yields.

For crude oil, Ponmudi added crude oil prices have pulled back sharply, with WTI crude trading around $96-97 per barrel following its steepest single-day decline in more than three months, as hopes of progress in U.S.-Iran diplomatic negotiations improved sentiment. Iranian and Qatari officials have reportedly held several rounds of discussions aimed at ending the conflict, with a draft proposal said to be under consideration. However, the conflict remains unresolved, and the Strait of Hormuz continues to be a critical risk to global energy supplies.

"A sustained de-escalation in geopolitical tensions and further moderation in energy prices could support the ongoing recovery. However, a breakdown in negotiations or continued weakness in global technology stocks could revive volatility, weigh on broader risk appetite and influence global capital flows," Ponmudi lastly added.

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