US Stock Market Weekly Outlook For October 5-9; Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500 To Perform Bearish Or Bullish?

The US stock market is expected to trade moderately bullish in the trading week from October 5th to 6th. In the week, economic and earnings reports are light; however, focus will be on rising treasury yields as oil prices calmed last week. If the treasury yields continue to hit fresh highs, then Wall Street would face bearish pressure. In the early hours of Monday, US stock futures traded volatile after the US nonfarm payroll report that eased the heightened concerns of another rate hike in October.

US Stock Futures Today

The Dow Jones futures traded lower by 47 points to 51,428, on the other hand, the Nasdaq 100 futures gained by 43 points to trade around 31,104.50. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures witnessed mild correction to trade around 7,774.25, at the time of writing.

US stock futures edged higher on Monday, extending gains from the previous session as softer US jobs data reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates, as per Trading Economics.

Last week, the USA added lower-than-expected 29K jobs in September 2026, against the forecast of 90K. It has also fallen from revised 133K jobs in August 2026. Also, the US unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%, mildly higher than 4.1% anticipation.

US employers added fewer jobs in September than expected, while wage growth also moderated. Markets are now pricing in nearly an 80% probability that the Fed will leave policy unchanged this month. Still, traders remained focused on elevated Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield hovering near its highest level since 2002. Investors now await a fresh batch of economic data this week for further clues, including the ISM services activity report, minutes from the Fed's September meeting and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment reading, as per Trading Economics.

On Monday morning, the 10-year treasury yield of US has cooled to 5.25% but still stays multi-decadal highs. The 30-year treasury yield slipped to 5.6%. With bond yields at nearly 20-years high, concerns continue to soar for energy-driven inflation, US fiscal risks and spike in debt-issuance linked to artificial intelligence.

The US dollar stayed close to its highest level since April 2025, to 102. On the other hand, both US WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures plunged by 1% each to trade around $90 per barrel and $101 per barrel. Spot gold is below $4,140 per ounce and spot silver holds above $61 per ounce.

Dow Jones + S&P 500 + Nasdaq Composite

The fewer jobs addition in September led Wall Street to rally last week. On October 2nd, the Dow Jones climbed by 250.40 points or 0.5% to end at 51,176.96. The tech-heavy index, Nasdaq Composite, outperformed with 320 points or 1.2% upside to close at 27,190.86. And the S&P 500 index also surged by 56.27 points or 0.73% to end at 7,722.72.

However, this was not enough to pull Dow Jones from ending bearish on week-on-week performance. Dow Jones extended its decline for fourth week to by dropping 472 points. On the contrary, Nasdaq recorded weekly gains of 255 points and S&P 500 was broadly flat.

"The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, the Dow gained 0.5% and the Nasdaq climbed 1.2%, led by technology, after weaker-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls (29,000 versus 90,000 forecast) reduced October Fed hike probability to roughly 20%," said Hemang Gor, Senior Research Analyst- Derivatives and Technical Research, Axis Direct.

However, the continued divergence in performance among the majors conveys the impact rising bond yields are having on stocks. The money flow continues to shift towards the tech/artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure complex, at the expense of the "non-AI" areas of the market, which could be impacted be higher interest rates. U.S. Treasury yields, along with global bond yields, hit fresh cycle highs this week, and this occurred despite a relatively benign inflation report and soft monthly jobs report, as per Charles Schwab's note.

US Stock Market Weekly Outlook For October 5-9:

"As we move through October seasonality incrementally improves. Therefore, I am going to once again provide a "moderately bullish" outlook for stocks...,"said Nathan Peterson, Director of Derivatives Research and Strategy for the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

What could change his stance? If Treasury yields, or global bond yields for that matter, continue to hit fresh cycle highs, this will likely put pressure on stocks.

This week, he explained that the economic calendar is light, and Q3 earnings season doesn't really start until October 13th, so oil prices and (more importantly) the trajectory of Treasury yields will likely be the primary driver of price action.

While he is skeptical over whether treasury yields could rise higher this week, he suspects that if yields do not cool off, this would likely give sideline equity investors enough of an excuse to put some capital back to work, especially in those areas of the market that have been sold off due to higher yields (small-caps, utilities, real estate, financials etc.).

At present, a host of factors are pushing yields higher including the longer-term economic growth and inflation expectations, AI debt issuance and rising yields on global sovereign debt, but the velocity of the move has been surprising, as per the analyst.

Monday, October 5, 2026

Economic data like ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and S&P Global U.S. Services PMI - Final are scheduled on Monday. There are no earnings.

Tuesday, October 6, 2026

On Tuesday, US trade balance will be reported. And companies like Apogee Enterprises Inc. (APOG), Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ), Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. (LW), Neogen Corporation (NEOG), Penguin Solutions Inc. (PENG), and RPM International Inc. (RPM) will be in focus for their quarterly reports.

Wednesday, October 7, 2026

Data like Consumer Credit, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and MBA Mortgage Applications Index are scheduled on Wednesday. Among earnings, watch out for Applied Digital Corporation (APLD), Levi Strauss & co. (LEVI), Resources Connection Inc. (RGP), and Richardson Electronics Ltd. (RELL).

Thursday, October 8, 2026

On October 8th, watch out for economic data including Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Initial Claims, and Wholesale Inventories. In earnings, companies like AngioDynamics Inc. (ANGO), Helen of Troy Ltd. (HELE), NovaGold Resources Inc. (NG), Nurix Therapeutics Inc. (NRIX), PepsiCo Inc. (PEP), and Tilray Brands Inc. (TLRY) will be in focus.

Friday, October 9, 2026

Investors will eye the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Preliminary on Friday. While companies like Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL), GoldMining Inc. (GLDG), and New Horizon Aircraft Ltd. (HOVR) will report their quarterly results.

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