US Stock Market Weekly Outlook For September 7-11: What Will Impact Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500 Ahead?

The US stock market witnessed volatility last week, with the Dow Jones recorded a weekly decline, while the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 witnessed weekly surges. Going ahead, the trading week between September 7th and September 11th will be holiday-shortened due to the Labor Day celebration across the states. The outlook in the week ahead is cautious. The bull case scenario could arrive if crude oil prices and treasury yields fall. Important economic data such as CPI, PPI, and the Treasury Budget are scheduled next week.

US Stock Market Weekly Wrap

On September 4th, all three indices on Wall Street witnessed a downward trend. The Dow Jones took the worst hit with 271.86 points or 0.51% decline to end at 53,414.25. The Nasdaq Composite also plunged by 77.07 points or 0.3% to close at 26,506.99. While the S&P 500 dipped by 29.11 points or 0.4% to end at 7,718.60.

The Friday decline came after the nonfarm payrolls data which surged higher-than-expected by 162K. Market had predicted gains of just 50K jobs. This has reiterated the concern of monetary policy tightening and rate hike this month from US Federal Reserve.

Also, indices dropped due to sharp selloffs in credit-sensitive sector. Stocks like Apple fell 2.5%, Microsoft declined over 2%, Salesforce plunged almost 2%. Walt Disney, McDonald's Corp, Merck, Walmart, Alphabet, VISA, American Express, Johnson & Johnson, Nike, and JP Morgan crashed 1% to 2% on September 4th, which topped Dow Jones heavily. Meanwhile, surge in chipmakers limited the downside in Nasdaq. Chip stocks like Sandisk zoomed 12%, Micron climbed over 6%, Nvidia gained 1%, AMD advanced 5%, Marvell and Intel also jumped 7% and 5% respectively on optimism surrounding OpenAI's new GPT model.

For the weekly performance, Nathan Peterson, Director of Derivatives Research and Strategy for the Schwab Center for Financial Research, highlighted that oil prices and yields were higher following an escalation of Iran strikes on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. subsequently launched retaliatory strikes on Iran, and Iran responded with additional attacks, so Middle East tensions escalated this week.

Crude Oil Prices Elevated

Last week, WTI crude prices were up roughly 9%, with WTI October futures last seen trading down $0.20 to $91.10/barrel. Diesel prices in the U.S. hit a record $5.85/gallon on Friday. This also moved global bond yields as well globally.

Treasury Yields At Multi-Years High

Japan's 10-year yields hit a 30-year high, UK 10-year yields hit a 19-year high of 5.294%, France 10-year yields hit a 17-year high and German 10-year yields hit a 10-year high. Even in the U.S., yields on the 10-year Treasury hit the highest level (~4.80%) since November 2023, as per Charles Schwab's tracker.

"Aside from the potential inflationary impact due to higher oil prices, concerns around rising federal deficits, heavy issuance of debt (in part due to the artificial intelligence, or AI, buildout), monetary policy and longer-term economic growth forecasts are all factors influencing the sovereign debt market," Nathan said.

For the USA market, he highlighted that potential rate hikes from the Federal Reserve are also weighing on equity risk appetite.

US Corporates Earnings Season

Meanwhile, the earning seasons of US companies is almost over. Data of Schwab reveals as 493 of the S&P 500 companies have reported results. From the companies we've heard from, 69% have beat estimates on the top line while 88% have beat on the bottom line.

More notably, the Schwab's data explained that earnings per share (EPS) growth has been 53% and revenue growth is up 15.61%. When excluding one-time investment gains from mega-cap tech, the EPS growth rate for the S&P 500 is tracking 26-29%, which is still exceptionally strong.

US Stock Market Weekly Outlook

For the week ahead, Nathan said, "Throw in bearish seasonality during the month of September, along with the potential for higher volume/adjustments to positioning when most fund managers/traders come back from vacation next Tuesday (Monday is Labor Day), and I'm going to stay with a "Cautious" outlook for next week."

What could challenge his forecast? Nathan said, "Obviously, lower oil prices and falling yields could lift stocks, but a tame/cooler-than-expected CPI report next Friday would almost certainly provide a boost."

However, the strategist is not sure how resilient U.S. equities will be if the Iran conflict gets worse and oil prices/yields continue to march higher.

Technically, he said, the major indices have been holding ground and have mostly been in sideways consolidation patterns over the past month, which one could interpret as relatively bullish given the escalation in Iran, and correspondingly higher oil prices and yields.

Key Economic Data And Earnings To Watch Out

Monday, September 7, 2026

There are no earnings or any economic data being released on Monday due to market being closed for Labor Day.

Tuesday, September 8, 2026

Economic reports like Consumer Credit, and NFIB Small Business Optimism are scheduled on Tuesday. Among earnings, watch out for companies like ABM Industries Inc. (ABM), Braze Inc. (BRZE), Casey's General Stores Inc. (CASY), GameStop Corp. (GME), ServiceTitan Inc. (TTAN), and United Natural Foods Inc. (UNFI)

Wednesday, September 9, 2026

MBA Mortgage Applications Index report is scheduled on September 9. In case of earnings, companies like Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc. (ASO), AeroVironment Inc. (AVAV), American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO), Chewy Inc. (CHWY), Core & Main Inc. (CNM), Korn Ferry (KFY), Navan Inc. (NAVN), SailPoint Inc. (SAIL), Signet Jewelers Ltd. (SIG), The Cooper Companies (COO), and Trip.com Group Ltd. (TCOM) will be in focus.

Thursday, September 10, 2026

Thursday will be crucial for Wall Street as economic data such as Continuing Claims, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Existing Home Sales, Initial Claims, Producer Price Index (PPI), and Wholesale Inventories are set to be released on this day.

Among earnings, companies like Adobe Inc. (ADBE), Caleres Inc. (CAL), Copart Inc. (CPRT), Designer Brands Inc. (DBI), Macy's Inc. (M), Mastercraft Boar Holdings Inc. (MCFT), Oracle Corp. (ORCL), RH Inc. (RH), and Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (TEN) will be in focus.

Friday, September 11, 2026

Friday is another pivotal day as US CPI numbers will be released. Also, Treasury Budget and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be announced.

In case of quarterly results, companies like Hooker Furnishings Corp. (HOFT) and Kroger Co. (KR) are scheduled.

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