West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam Poll Results: How Assembly Elections Results Will Impact Indian Stocks?

The Assembly election results of four states and one union territory will be announced on May 4, 2026. These include West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala along with UT Puducherry. Although the Indian market is expected to be driven by global trends, Q4 results, along with FII flows, will be split between oil versus macro factors, still investors will closely watch the results of these states' elections. The current poll predictions suggest a strong performance of the ruling party Saffron, BJP. However, the BJP's performance in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu will be closely watched.

Assembly Election Results 2026 Date & Counting Time:

The assembly elections of West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry will begin in the early hours of May 4, 2026. The voting for these states had been held in April. Assam, Kerala and Puducherry election voting took place on April 9, while West Bengal had a two-phase voting on April 23rd and April 29th. Lastly Tamil Nadu election was held on April 9.

As per the data, 92% voter turnout was seen in West Bengal, followed by 89.87% in Puducherry, 85.38% in Assam, 84.69% in Tamil Nadu and lastly Kerala who saw 79.63% voters turnout.

How Will Indian Stock Market Will Be Impacted By The Election Poll Results?

"Exit poll results on assembly elections of four states (Assam, Keralam, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal) and one UT (Puducherry) suggest that incumbents are likely to retain their majority in two states and UT, while West Bengal will see a close contest. Markets may continue to debate more on oil versus macro-calculus, while giving a brief cheer for electoral stability," said Analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities in a note.

In the report, analysts said, "Indian equities are likely to react positively in the near term if exit polls, particularly the BJP's projected breakthrough in West Bengal, are validated on May 4, 2026. However, we think the durability of any rally will be tested quickly, as the trajectory of crude oil remains the single largest short-term risk variable."

Thereby, they markets to trade in a range, with election enthusiasm fading relatively quickly as attention reverts to (1) earnings delivery, (2) oil price trajectory and its implications for India's macro and (3) the government's willingness to undertake difficult but necessary policy adjustments on energy pricing.

In April month, Sensex witnessed a whopping 3,779.18 points or 5.2% jump, while Nifty 50 closed the month on strong bullish note with 1,318.15 points or 5.81%. Currently, both Sensex and Nifty are at 76,913.50 and 23,997.55 respectively.

On the other hand, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued to be net sellers in April 2026 with overall outflow of Rs 70,135.46 crore from Indian stock market. FIIs have been net sellers since July 2025. However, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have continued to show strong demand for stocks. In April, DIIs inflow stood at Rs 51,063.87 crore after they pumped in Rs 1,42,960.37 crore in March 2026. DIIs have been net buyers in Indian stocks since July 2023, as per Stock Edge data.

West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Assam Exit Polls Prediction:

The current exit poll suggests that BJP could retain power in Assam and Puducherry. However, the United Democratic Front (UDF) which is an alliance led by the Indian National Congress party, could win Kerala elections. Further, DMK is expected to retain its position in Tamil Nadu. But a close contest between BJP and Mamta Banerjee's All India Trinamool Congress ( AITC ) is expected in West Bengal.

Analysts also pointed out that exit polls have had a mixed track record in India recently, with (1) large divergence between actual results and exit polls
(notably Lok Sabha elections 2024) and (2) certain pollsters suggesting higher share of voters unwilling to disclose their preferences.

They further said, with no major state election scheduled until early 2027, the government enters a relatively election-free corridor of 10 months.

Accordingly, analysts expect the government to firmly focus on managing India's weakening macro environment, amid (1) elevated crude oil prices, (2) risks to food inflation from a sub-par monsoon and (3) a widening current account deficit. In Kotak's view, policymakers may focus on (1) rationalizing energy subsidies, (2) accelerating trade diversification, (3) finalizing the India-US Bilateral Trade Agreement and (4) accelerating certain slow-moving reforms.

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