When Will Monsoon Arrive in India in 2026? IMD Forecasts Early Kerala Onset in May; El Nino Could Weaken Rain

India may get an early taste of the monsoon this year, with the India Meteorological Department forecasting that the southwest monsoon is likely to reach Kerala around May 26, 2026-nearly a week ahead of its usual onset date of June 1.

Monsoon Likely to Arrive Early This Year: IMD Forecasts Kerala Onset Around May 26

For millions across the country, the arrival of the monsoon marks much more than a change in weather. It brings relief from scorching summer temperatures, replenishes reservoirs, supports agriculture and sets the tone for food prices, rural incomes and overall economic activity.

The IMD noted that the forecast carries an uncertainty margin of four days on either side. In practical terms, the monsoon could make landfall in Kerala anytime between May 22 and May 30.

IMD and Skymet Weather Forecast Indicates Weaker Southwest Monsoon

The possibility of an early onset comes against an unusual backdrop. Both the IMD and private weather forecaster Skymet Weather Services have indicated that the 2026 southwest monsoon season may be weaker than normal.

El Nino Impact on Rainfall in India: Will Farmers and Reservoirs Be Hit in 2026?

The key concern is the development of El Nino, a warming of Pacific Ocean waters that often disrupts rainfall patterns over India. El Nino years are typically associated with reduced monsoon rainfall, which can affect crop production, water availability and hydroelectric generation.

In other words, the monsoon may arrive early, but that does not guarantee abundant rainfall throughout the season.

Why the Kerala Monsoon Matters So Much

The onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala is considered the official beginning of India's rainy season. Once the monsoon arrives, it gradually advances northward across the country over the following weeks.

This progression brings widespread rainfall and offers much-needed respite from extreme summer heat, especially across northern and central India. Farmers also closely monitor the onset, as timely rains are critical for sowing key kharif crops such as rice, cotton, soybeans and pulses.

If the IMD's forecast holds, parts of southern India could begin receiving monsoon rains earlier than usual. However, the broader question for agriculture and the economy will be whether the rains remain consistent throughout the June-to-September season.

How Accurate Is IMD's Monsoon Forecast? Here's How Closely Predictions Have Matched Actual Arrival Dates

Together, these signals help meteorologists determine when the large-scale circulation associated with the southwest monsoon is strengthening enough to advance into Kerala.

One of the biggest questions every year is whether the IMD's projected monsoon onset date will actually hold true. Historical data suggests that the IMD's forecast has generally been highly reliable, with the actual arrival of the southwest monsoon over Kerala usually occurring within just a few days of the predicted date.

2025: IMD forecast the onset for May 27, while the monsoon arrived on May 24 - just 3 days earlier than predicted.

2024: The forecast date was May 31, and the monsoon reached Kerala on May 30 - only 1 day earlier.

2023: IMD predicted June 4, while the actual onset took place on June 8 - a difference of 4 days later.

2022: The projected date was May 27, and the monsoon arrived on May 29 - just 2 days later.

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