Will Your Gold Jewellery Bill Shrink This Year? 10-Year Demand Slump Sparks Buzz

Gold jewellery bills may shrink in the financial year 2026-27, as demand for physical gold is expected to fall to a 10-year low. The quantity of gold purchased by retail jewellery buyers may decline as the precious metal's prices have surged to record highs. While sales volume, or the amount of gold sold, may decline in FY27, the overall sales value could still rise due to elevated gold prices, as per CRISIL report.

Gold prices surged by close to 60% in 2025, and the rally has continued so far in 2026. Adding to the woes for gold jewellery buyers, the central government increased import duty on gold and silver to curb gold imports and support the weakening Indian Rupee.

Volume For Gold Jewellery Buyers Dip 13-15% in FY 27

The volume for gold jewellery buyers dropped nearly 6%-7% in FY 26 and is likely to fall further to 13-14% in FY27. Gold sales volume may fall to 620-640 tonnes in FY 27 and hit to record 10-year low mark, as per CRISIL report.

India imported around 720 tonne of gold in FY 26, which lead to a foreign currency outflow of $72 billion. "The sector is expected to see its sales volume hit the lowest level in a decade, excluding the Covid-impacted fiscal 2021," reported CRISIL highlighting the impact import duty hike.

Robust Revenue Growth In Gold Jewellery Sales In FY 27

While the volume of gold sales may drop significantly in the ongoing financial year, the sector may see robust revenue growth of 20-25% on an annual basis, due to higher realisations.

"High prices of gold will lead to increased inventory holding costs and higher bank borrowings. However, an increase in both revenues and cash accruals will offset higher reliance on debt, resulting in stable credit profiles," stated CRISIL in its report.

Will Your Gold Jewellery Bill Actually Shrink This Year?

Possibly, but not because gold is getting cheaper. Instead, buyers are increasingly shifting towards lightweight designs, lower-carat jewellery (16-22 carat range), and studded ornaments to manage rising costs. This could reduce the overall purchase bill for many consumers, even as gold prices remain elevated. A significant fall in gold prices, however, appears unlikely in the near term.

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