Can Gold Rate Fall Below Rs 1 Lakh? Prices Currently Down Rs. 30,000 From Record High; Here's What Experts Say

Gold has had a stunning run over the last 18 months; domestic gold prices surged from around Rs 85,000 per 10 grams to a record Rs 1.78 lakh, a gain of more than 100%. But the yellow metal prices have now pulled back sharply, giving a breath of fresh air for gold jewellery buyers. Currently, the major topic of discussion is whether gold price fall back below the Rs 1 lakh mark?

As of 12 June 2026, 24K gold rate in India stood at Rs 1,48,850 per 10 grams, while on the Multi Commodity Exchange, August gold futures fell around 2.3% to end at Rs 1,49,847 per 10 grams. The trigger this time was hotter-than-expected US inflation data. The US Consumer Price Index for May 2026 showed headline inflation rising 4.2% year-on-year, the highest reading since April 2023.

Gold Price Correction So Far

Gold prices in India plunged 16.85% from a peak of Rs 1.78 lakh in March 2026 to Rs 1.48 lakh per 10g on June 12, due to a surging US dollar, the Fed's policy stance, and shifts in global trade.

International spot gold fell 0.20% to $4,063.87 per ounce, touching its lowest level since November, while US gold futures for August fell 1.13% to $4,086.72 per ounce.

Historically, the gold rate in India has seen a 35% crash in 1964 following the Gold Control Act, and a 30% drop in 2013 due to Fed tapering, dollar strength, and sharp import duties.

According to an Apollo Global Management report, Chief Economist Torsten Slok stated: "The gold rally that began in 2022 had three clear structural drivers: central bank buying driven by de-dollarisation following sanctions on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine, persistent worries about US inflation, and strong retail demand from India and China that accelerated the upward trend."

"The most likely reason for the recent pullback is investors liquidating gold to meet losses elsewhere in their portfolios, essentially a liquidity-driven correction rather than a structural reversal," the report further added.

It should also be noted that gold has delivered approximately an 11.5% compound annual growth rate in Indian Rupee terms since 2000. Rs 1 lakh invested in gold in 2000 would be worth approximately Rs 18-20 lakh today.

Will Gold Price Decline Below 1Lac per 10g?

Despite the recent bearish phase in gold prices, the drop below the Rs 1 lakh target is unlikely.

ICICI Bank Research in the report expects India gold prices to trade between Rs 1.5 lakh and Rs 1.8 lakh per 10 grams in 2026, suggesting the yellow metal may enter a phase of consolidation rather than a sharp correction.

As per the report, "We expect gold prices to move toward USD 4,800-5,000 per ounce by December 2026, which could support domestic prices and keep gold within the projected Rs 1.5-1.8 lakh per 10 gram range through 2026."

However, the World Gold Council and Goldman Sachs are optimistic, projecting a further 20-30% upside for gold in 2026. Based on those forecasts, gold prices could move into the Rs 1.8-2 lakh range by year-end under a bullish scenario.

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