Diwali Stock Picks 2026 With 51% Upside: Nirmal Bang Picks Axis Bank, Paytm, Tata Consumer, UltraTech & More

Equity indices are still in the red for 2026, even after this week's sharp rebound. The Nifty and Sensex are down 4.2% and 4.9% for the year, as compared to a 7% gain in the MSCI Emerging Markets index.

The first week of November has been quite a remarkable time for the market as Nifty gained 8.6% and the Sensex 8.8% over the last 5 days, their strongest weekly performance since February 2021.

Both indices rose for a seventh straight session, the longest winning streak in 14 months for the Nifty and 26 months for the Sensex, and closed at over eight-month highs.

Falling crude prices and limited exposure to AI-linked stocks helped Indian benchmarks survive the global tech selloff.

The last two sessions have been the heart of the Diwali rally. On Thursday, the Sensex jumped 2,008.61 points, or 2.60%, to 79,310.01, while the Nifty gained 576 points, or 2.40%, to 24,536.60, as crude fell sharply after Democrats won control of both chambers of the US Congress in the midterms, raising hopes of an end to the US-Israel-Iran conflict.

On Dhanteras, Friday, the Sensex rose 1,718.01 points, or 2.17%, to 81,028.02, while the Nifty advanced 493.75 points, or 2.01%, to 25,030.35.

The Nifty crossed 25,000 for the first time since 27 February 2026, with banks and financial stocks leading the advance.
Now the next trading will be the Muhurat trading on the day of Diwali, i.e November 8. Nirmal Bang's Retail Research Desk released its Diwali Picks 2026 on 2 November. Here is a list of stocks across banking, consumer internet, fintech, pipes, rentals, NBFCs, FMCG and cement, with upside ranging from 20% to 51%.

Axis Bank with 27% Upside

Axis Bank is the first in the lists where the brokerage has set a target of Rs. 1,547 against a CMP of Rs. 1,322.90. The brokerage in it report said, "advances growth of about 23% YoY in Q2 FY27, ahead of system credit growth, led by a 34% jump in corporate lending. Deposits grew 21% YoY, and asset quality has improved, with GNPA at 1.16% and NNPA at 0.35% against 5.26% and 2.06% in FY19."

Nirmal Bang sees rising rates as a tailwind. It values the bank at about 1.6x FY28E P/ABV and adds ₹150 per share for subsidiaries, and expects PAT to rise 25% to Rs. 30,539 crore in FY27E.

Eternal with 22% Upside

Nirmal Bang recommends Buy on Eternal with a target of Rs. 420 against a CMP of Rs. 363.15, valuing it at 36x FY29E EV/EBITDA. The brokerage said, "Blinkit the key driver, with net order value up 79.3% YoY to ₹20,940 crore in Q2 FY27 and 308 dark stores added in the quarter, taking the network to 2,751. Zomato's food delivery NOV grew 21.5% YoY to Rs. 11,445 crore and generated Rs. 627 crore of adjusted EBITDA, funding the quick-commerce expansion."

One 97 Communications (Paytm) with 23% Upside

Paytm's parent has been given a target of Rs. 2,010 against a CMP of Rs. 1,794. Monthly transacting users rose by 1 crore YoY to 8.5 crore in Q2 FY27, while merchant GMV grew 26% YoY to Rs. 7.1 lakh crore.The brokerage said, "Default loss guarantee costs will rise materially from Q3 FY27 after guarantees resume with its largest lending partner. It expects EBITDA of Rs. 1,163 crore in FY27E and Rs. 1,950 crore in FY28E."

Prince Pipes with 51% Upside

Prince Pipes carries the highest upside on the list, with a target of Rs. 387 against a CMP of Rs. 307 and a Buy rating. Nirmal Bang report mentioned, "the 7% volume decline in Q1 FY27 mainly led to a sharp PVC price correction in April 2026 that triggered channel destocking, and says the company's decline was better than its peers'."

Rentomojo with a 45% Upside

A Buy call has been issued on Rentomojo with a target of Rs. 785 against a CMP of Rs. 581. The brokerage mentioned, "the rental market grew at about 45% annually between CY2021 and CY2025 and could expand at about 31% a year to Rs. 60.3 billion by CY2030."

SG Finserve with 33% Upside

SG Finserve, part of the APL Apollo Group, has a target of Rs. 916 against a CMP of Rs. 697. Nirmal Bang says the supply chain financing NBFC's loan book has grown at about 53% CAGR over FY24 to FY26 and stood at Rs. 5,694 crore in Q2 FY27, up 98% YoY. The brokerage expects ROE to improve from 12% in FY26 to 15% in FY28E and forecasts NII and PAT CAGR of 54% and 55% over FY26 to FY28E.

Tata Consumer Products with 20% Upside

Tata Consumer has the lowest upside on the list, with a Buy rating and a target of Rs. 1,227 against a CMP of Rs. 1,086. Nirmal Bang says the company has shifted from a tea-led business to a diversified food and beverage player, with its growth businesses rising from 8% of India branded revenue in FY21 to 31% in FY26 and 38% in Q2 FY27, while domestic tea fell to 24% of total revenue.

UltraTech Cement with 28% Upside

Nirmal Bang has a target of Rs. 14,185 on UltraTech against a CMP of Rs. 11,050, calling the recent price correction an attractive entry point at 15.1x FY28E EV/EBITDA. The brokerage, in its report, mentioned, "There is an expected 12% volume growth in FY27 as capacity rises from 210 MTPA to 240 MTPA by FY28, while realisations have risen from Rs. 5,770 per tonne in Q4 FY26 to Rs. 6,095 in Q2 FY27."

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