India's trade deficit has widened significantly, and in this context, the government's decision to leave the RCEP is a difficult move and comes with positive and negative implications. While this measure aims to protect the country's vulnerable sectors, such as textiles and agriculture, it can also result in missing growth opportunities. Over the past three months, FIIs have been the net sellers in the cash segment, while DIIs have been the real net buyers, reflecting global investor concerns about current market prices and GDP data.
As per V.L.A. Ambala, a Research Analyst (SEBI Registered), Co-founder - Stock Market Today (SMT), during Friday's session, the India VIX rose more than 7% and Nifty breached its key support at 25,000, leading to an expected market sell-off amid weaker global conditions. As a result, the benchmark index Nifty formed a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on the weekly timeframe and a bearish Marubozu candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe. The index closed below 25,000 and fell below July's high for the first time in September. However, the index remains about 13% away from its 20-month EMA, with price divergence narrowing gradually.

"However, markets are waiting for the US Fed's final decision on interest rate cuts, which could influence fund flows into economies. In my opinion, with employment data at a 3.5-year low and the dollar trying to bounce back from the 100 mark, the current economic climate does not seem conducive for rate cuts. Meanwhile, the Indian rupee is also trading on a weaker note. While global rating agencies have raised their outlook for India's GDP growth, a continued decline in the INR could be alarming," VLA Ambala stated.
Despite the overbought index, India remains an attractive stock market, making it wise for market participants to look for discounted opportunities. The government is focused on supporting underperforming sectors to offset widening trade deficits. Moreover, India's recent efforts in the semiconductor industry during the Singapore visit could have a long-term positive impact.
Market Overview for 9 September 2024, Monday
"For the Nifty index, the key support levels for today's trading session will be between 24,760 and 24,630 whereas resistance will likely be between 25,000 and 25,100. On the other hand, the Bank Nifty Index could find key support between levels 50,500 and 50,210, and witness 51,950 and 51,150, acting as their major resistance points," VLA Ambala predicted.
Stocks to Checkout on 9 September 2024, Monday
V.L.A. Ambala has recommended the below 2 stocks to buy or sell on Monday, after the formation of a bearish Marubozu candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe and a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on the weekly timeframe for Nifty.
AUBANK
- Sell: Rs. 700
- Target: Rs. 690/680/670
- Stop Loss: Rs. 714
- Holding Period: Intraday
ICL
- Sell: Rs. 90/89
- Target: Rs. 85/83/80/77/75
- Stop Loss: Rs. 95
- Holding Period: Intraday
Note: V.L.A. Ambala emphasizes that these recommendations are based on price movement, past behavior, and technical analysis.
Disclaimer
The recommendations made above are by market analysts and are not advised by either the author, nor Greynium Information Technologies. The author, nor the brokerage firm nor Greynium would be liable for any losses caused as a result of decisions based on this write-up. Goodreturns.in advises users to consult with certified experts before making any investment decision.
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