Tapering off asset purchase programme will not be good news

The US Federal Reserve will decide after its 2-day meeting that ends on Sept 18, whether it tapers off its asset purchase programme of $85 billion. Tapering would mean less liquidity and less liquidity has an impact on stock and gold prices. Indian stock markets could react negatively. Seen in the pic is Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.  

A prolonged attack on Syria means elevated oil prices

A Syrian strike by the US and its allies could see crude prices rising. Indian markets will react to a rise in crude prices, since our crude bill is already soaring with a falling rupee and prolonged rise in crude prices could aggravate the fiscal deficit.

Poor GDP data to weigh on markets

The month will begin with the markets digesting the weak GDP data which came out on Friday. Against consensus estimates of a GDP of 4.7% for Q1 2014, we reported a GDP of just 4.4%. This is unlikely to go down well with the markets.  

A bad month for equities

September is traditionally a weak month for equities in countries like the US. This tends to have an impact on other global markets.

Threat of further tightening of monetary policy

The RBI's mid quarter monetary policy meet will coincide with the Fed's meet, though it would not know the outcome of the Fed decision on tapering. There are talks if the currency weakens the RBI may even decide to hike interest rates. If that happens expect equities to drift significantly lower.