ICICI Securities has given a buy rating to GAIL India for a target price of Rs 140 apiece. If investors buy the stocks of the company at the current market price, they could benefit from a 70% potential upside. The company declared Q1FY23 results, where the company reported a second successive quarter of robust operational growth in Q1FY23, with EBITDA of Rs43.6bn and PAT of Rs 29.1bn grew 91% YoY and 9% QoQ. GAIL India is a large cap Maharatna company with a market capitalization of Rs 58,277.30 crore.
Stock Outlook & Returns
The stocks of the company closed today at Rs 132.90 apiece, reporting a decline of nearly 5.14% It was opened at Rs 139.90 apiece. Currently, the stocks are trading Rs 7.7 above the 52 week low level.
Last year in December, the stocks hit the 52-week low level at Rs 125.20 apiece, whereas, they touched the 52-week high level this year in April at Rs 173.50 apiece. TTM EPS is Rs 27.96. TTM PE ratio is 4.7. PB ratio is 0.92. The ROE of the stock is 19.11%.
The stocks of the company have continuously fallen for the last 1 year, however, it has given a positive return in past 3 years of around 8.09%. This week it has fallen nearly 9.35% and 0.67% in the past 1 month, respectively. In the past 1 year, it has fallen 7% and in the past 5 years, 6.18%, respectively.
Volumes remain muted
Gas transmission volumes of 109.5mmscmd, petchem sales of 109kt and LPG sales of 165kt remain fairly subdued, dragging earnings in Q1FY23. For the rest of FY23E also, volume growth will remain challenging, with lower gas availability from Gazprom and very high prices of alternate gas to constrain transmission, trading volumes as well as utilisation of the petchem plants (since they use a basket of LNG sources for their gas).
Margins for gas transmission and trading improve; petchem, LPG see YoY decline
Both, blended tariffs for the transmission segment at Rs1.68/scm and trading margins of Rs2.5/scm were at 10-quarter highs. However, largely due to very high gas costs, petchem EBIT margin collapsed to a multi-quarter low of 2.4% (1,300bps lower QoQ) while for LPG also, EBIT margin of 44% was at an 8-quarter low, dipping 1,600bps QoQ. Petchem prices and LPG realisations have, however, improved 63% and 35% YoY, respectively, which augur well for margins going forward.
Key downside risks
1) Sharply lower gas consumption trends.
2) Stronger than estimated gas price impact for petchem/LPG segment.
3) Reduction in pricing gap between US LNG and Asian spot LNG prices.
ICICI Securities Reiterate BUY with a target price of Rs 140 apiece
According to the brokerage, GAIL has reported a second successive quarter of robust operational growth in Q1FY23, with EBITDA of Rs43.6bn (up 81% YoY, 18% QoQ, 11% above estimates) and PAT of Rs29.1bn grew 91% YoY and 9% QoQ. Beat on operational front vs ISec estimates was driven by i) stronger trading segment EBIT and ii) marginal beat on transmission volumes, offset by weaker petchem volumes/margins and weak LPG volumes. Very high differentials between Asian LNG prices and US Henry Hub benchmarks continue to drive trading gains for GAIL, albeit with the suspension of ~2mt (~7mmscmd) of gas supplies from Gazprom due to the ongoing geopolitical issues, both trading segment gains as well as gas availability for the petchem segment would be constrained over the rest of FY23E.
The brokerage said, "Our base case estimates were already conservative for trading segment and hence, despite factoring in lower volumes for transmission/trading, we see a small jump in FY23E EPS, while FY24E EPS sees a minor downgrade (adjusted for the recent buyback of 57mn shares). Valuations of just 5x FY24E EPS and 4.0x EV/EBITDA are attractive with our revised target price of Rs225 (earlier: Rs233), implying 60% upside."
"The combination of stronger demand, resilient margins and the additional delta from the new gas pooling scheme (providing access to additional CGD volumes for GAIL's gas trading segment) means GAIL should be able to largely offset the sharply higher input costs for petchem and LPG segments over FY23EFY24E. We do factor in lower margins for the two segments for FY23E vs our earlier estimates, but this is offset by stronger trading gains (Q1 EBITDA is 50% of our FY23 estimate). Our conviction in GAIL remains intact as mentioned in the foregoing, with valuations at attractive levels," the brokerage added.
The stock has been picked from the brokerage report of ICICI Securities. Greynium Information Technologies, the Author, and the respective Brokerage House are not liable for any losses caused as a result of decisions based on the article. Goodreturns.in advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decision.