Swiggy Share Price Outlook After Crashes 16% To 52-Week Low; ICICI Securities Keeps Buy, Sees 127% Upside

Swiggy shares had a brutal Friday. The stock fell as much as 17.23% to a 52-week low of Rs. 174.90 on the BSE, a day after its Q2 FY27 results showed widening losses at its quick commerce arm, Instamart. It closed at Rs. 176, down about 16% from the previous close of Rs. 211.40. It had already slipped more than 5% on Thursday, before the numbers were out.

A loss that narrowed YoY but widened QoQ

The headline numbers look better at first glance than the market reaction suggests. Revenue from operations rose 36.1% YoY to Rs. 7,571 crore. The consolidated net loss narrowed YoY to Rs. 922 crore from Rs. 1,092 crore a year ago. The trouble is the sequential trend. The net loss widened from Rs. 791 crore in Q1 FY27, and the adjusted EBITDA loss rose to around Rs. 760 crore from Rs. 650 crore in the previous quarter. The adjusted EBITDA margin slipped to -9.6% from -9.2%.

Instamart is the problem

Instamart's gross order value grew 31.4% YoY to Rs. 9,230 crore, and monthly transacting users rose to 14.8 million. It added 69 stores in the quarter, taking the network to 1,240 stores across 133 cities. But its adjusted EBITDA loss climbed to roughly Rs. 900 crore from Rs. 780 crore in Q1, and its contribution margin fell to -1% of GOV from -0.2%. Swiggy blamed customer reactivation spending and an adverse order mix. Several brokerages cut their price targets, flagging Instamart's widening losses and slower-than-expected growth.

Food delivery was the bright spot

The core business did its job. Food delivery GOV rose 17.7% YoY to Rs. 10,050 crore, and adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 3.4% of GOV from 3.1% in Q1. Monthly transacting users grew 15.1% YoY to 19.8 million. Advertising income, delivery cost efficiencies and the rising share of Bolt and 99-Store, which together now make up more than 25% of food delivery volumes, drove the margin gain. Swiggy's affordability app Toing has expanded to over 50 cities, and management has kept its FY27 food delivery growth guidance at 18-20%, excluding Toing.

What ICICI Securities says

Even after the sell-off, ICICI Securities has stayed positive. In its October 23 report, the brokerage maintained its Buy rating but cut its target price to Rs. 400 from Rs. 520. Using Friday's close of Rs. 176, that implies about 127% upside. The report itself used a market price of Rs. 211, which put the upside at roughly 90%.

The brokerage said the target cut came from a 100-basis-point increase in its cost of capital assumption and a shift to a fully diluted share count that includes unvested shares held by the employee trust. It also lowered its earnings estimates. For FY27, it now expects an EBITDA loss of Rs. 2,253 crore, against Rs. 1,097 crore earlier. For FY28 it sees EBITDA of Rs. 301 crore, down from Rs. 1,376 crore. Its FY27 and FY28 revenue estimates were cut by 2.8% and 4% to Rs. 30,222 crore and Rs. 38,678 crore, respectively.

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