Dhanteras 2024: Gold and silver in India see massive demand during the auspicious occasion of Dhanteras. On Tuesday, October 29, as India celebrates the first day of Diwali, it is vital to know when is the right opportunity and the best target to fetch gold and silver considering these precious metals are at an all-time high already. 2024 so far has been a blockbuster year for gold and silver prices. Here is the technical outlook and investment strategy for gold and silver this Samvat 2081.
Gold, Silver Performance:
Ventura Securities' latest study showed that gold is now acting as a hedge against US economic sanctions too, traditionally behaviour being a safe haven asset (store of value) and as a hedge against inflation.
Data from the brokerage pointed out that gold futures are still hovering near record highs ($ 2772 or Rs.78900 +), gaining more than 34% so far this year, although post these highs there has been a profit booking and correction to the prices. After this week's strong rally, gold appears to be taking a brief pause.
That being said, gold and silver have shown remarkable appreciation and resilience compared to the time, in 2014, when yellow metal ranged at Rs 27000 or $1200. This records a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% - 9%.
Additionally silver has significantly surged to its highest level since 2012. Notably, the Silver Institute of America is projecting a demand of 1.219 billion ounces in 2024, outpacing a supply of just 1.004 billion ounces (Forecasting a 215-million-ounce silver supply/demand deficit for 2024).
YTD, silver prices have skyrocketed by over 41%.
Are Gold and Silver Still An Asset Allocator?
According to Ventura Securities, YES! Gold remains a perfect hedge against volatility in stock markets and uncertainty across the world, although not aiming at a superlative return by going overboard.
Its relevance to diversifying investment portfolio's is augmented from the past data which shows that in the years when equity returns were low or negative, gold compensated by putting up a good show, the brokerage said.
How To Strategize Your Investment Pattern In Gold, Silver?
The brokerage Ventura is suggesting to adopt a "buy on dips" strategy in the medium term, which could be advantageous for the MCX futures.
In Ventura's view, gold is perennially used as a tactical 10-12% allocation in a portfolio, irrespective of the price levels of Gold. Thereby, the brokerage highlighted that based on one's investment goals and liquidity needs, one could consider investing in gold ETFs, sovereign gold bonds, or physical gold (bars or coins), besides taking opportunity in the Gold Futures (Derivatives).
Gold, Silver Price Technical Outlook By Ventura Securities:
1. Gold: Potential rise to Rs 79,000 - 85,700; Support at Rs 77,000
2. Silver: Expected surge to Rs 106,000 - 120,000; Support at Rs 95,500
3. Comex Gold: Targets of $2,760 - $3,000; Support at $2,650
4. Comex Silver: Aiming for $35 - $40; Support at $32.90 headline options
"Despite inflation being moderated, Gold has rallied to new highs. Short-term gold prices will be at a slower pace due slower pace of rate cuts. There is also a risk that gold may give back some of the recent gains (But the trajectory of Gold in the long term is bullish)," Ventura's note said.
In the case of silver, the brokerage also pointed out that the ongoing supply shortages and expected FED monetary easing will be among the key triggers for silver.
Also, China is to come up with a national solar grid by 2030 which demands a massive quantum of Silver. Almost the entire Silver produced in China is annually being consumed. Furthermore, India, likewise, announced $109 billion in grid investments for renewable energy sources, requiring large quantities of Silver.
Lastly, investor money is likely to pour in from the greater public into silver ("poor man's gold") as a cheap substitute for gold, the brokerage added,
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