OPEC Plus to Implement Modest June Output Hike Despite Hormuz Closure and Gulf Disruptions

OPEC+ was expected to approve a modest oil output rise on Sunday. Sources indicated targets could increase by about 188,000 barrels per day in June. Analysts said the decision may not add physical supply soon. The U.S.-Iran war continued to disrupt key Gulf exports and several producers.

The conflict, which started on February 28, closed the Strait of Hormuz. The closure restricted shipments from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait. Exports from the United Arab Emirates were also constrained. Before the war, these countries held the main OPEC+ spare capacity for increases.

Gulf oil executives and international traders described the planned OPEC+ oil output hike as mostly symbolic. Hormuz remained shut, limiting any near-term increase in exports. Market participants said normal shipping may still take time. Even after reopening, flows may need weeks or months to recover.

The seven states in Sunday’s OPEC+ oil output hike discussions were Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia and Oman. The United Arab Emirates left the alliance this week. OPEC+ then counted 21 members, including Iran. Recent monthly production decisions involved the seven and the UAE.

OPEC+ oil output hike contrasts with output data and price surge

OPEC said March crude output across all OPEC+ countries averaged 35.06 million barrels daily. That was 7.70 million barrels per day below February. Iraq and Saudi Arabia recorded the largest reductions. Routes were constrained after February 28 and Hormuz was closed.

Measure	Figure
OPEC+ crude output (March)	35.06 million bpd
Change from February	-7.70 million bpd
Proposed June target rise	188,000 bpd

The disruption pushed oil above $125 a barrel this week, a four-year high. Some analysts warned of jet fuel shortages within one to two months. Analysts also flagged higher global inflation if the war persists. OPEC+ plans remained on paper while security around Hormuz stayed uncertain.