Gulf States Urge Restraint as US Contemplates Action on Iran and Global Energy Stability

Gulf governments along the Persian Gulf are privately urging the US not to carry out military strikes on Iran, warning that any confrontation could unsettle energy markets, trigger political shocks, and draw them into direct conflict. Their appeal comes as US President Donald Trump signals vocal support for demonstrators challenging Iran's leadership.

Officials in these Arab states argue that military action against Tehran would endanger regional economic interests that are already vulnerable. They highlight the potential hit to investor confidence, the risk of supply disruptions, and the chance of domestic unrest if hostilities spread or retaliation targets allied infrastructure and trade routes.

One of the biggest worries for Gulf policymakers is any disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow channel handles around 20% of global crude exports. They fear that attempts to remove Iran's leadership by force could cut flows, lift prices sharply, and strain import-dependent economies worldwide.

Energy concerns are reinforced by the scale of ongoing unrest inside Iran. Protests began on Dec. 28 at Tehran's Grand Bazaar, first driven by anger over the rapid slide in the Iranian rial and worsening living conditions. Demonstrations then spread to several other cities as frustrations with economic management and political authority widened.

Iranian authorities have not released official casualty data from the protests. The Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), a US-based monitoring group, estimates that more than 2,550 people have been killed. The figure includes members of the security forces as well as protesters caught up in nationwide confrontations.

HRANA also reports that over 1,134 people have been injured since late December, reflecting the intensity of clashes. The group says at least 10,721 people have been detained and that 18,434 people have been taken into custody. These arrests reportedly cover 585 locations, including 187 cities in all 31 provinces.

Government officials in Tehran accuse foreign governments of fuelling the unrest. They blame the US and Israel for encouraging demonstrations and describe many incidents as "riots" and "terrorism." Such language adds to Gulf fears that Iran may respond aggressively to outside pressure, including any US military involvement or overt political support.

HRANA Indicator	Reported Figure
Estimated deaths	More than 2,550
Injured	Over 1,134
Detained	At least 10,721
Taken into custody	18,434
Locations affected	585, including 187 cities
Provinces covered	31

Gulf states Iran crisis diplomatic messages to Washington

The extensive casualty and arrest figures deepen concern in neighbouring capitals that unrest could spill beyond Iran's borders. Gulf rulers fear that prolonged instability might embolden opposition movements, disrupt cross-border trade, or push refugees and illicit flows toward their territories, complicating security planning and budget priorities.

Against this backdrop, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar have been sharing their worries with senior US officials in closed-door meetings, according to the Wall Street Journal. These conversations reportedly started after the White House urged Gulf partners to prepare for potential measures against Tehran, even as public comments from these states remain muted.

Saudi officials have meanwhile tried to draw clear lines with Tehran, regional sources say. Riyadh has conveyed to Iranian counterparts that it does not plan to join any conflict. It has also indicated that it will refuse US use of Saudi airspace for offensive operations, as Saudi Arabia aims to avoid direct involvement in a military confrontation.

Gulf states Iran crisis US strategy and political signals

Inside Washington, debate continues over possible steps. A White House official said, "The president listens to a host of opinions on any given issue, but ultimately makes the decision he feels is best," underscoring that US President Donald Trump has not yet issued a final order regarding action toward Iran.

Trump has, however, offered explicit backing for the Iranian demonstrators on social media. On Tuesday, the message stated: "HELP IS ON ITS WAY," encouraging protesters to sustain pressure on Iran's leadership. Tehran cites such statements as evidence of foreign involvement, while Gulf states worry that open alignment may push Iran toward harsher responses.

Gulf leaders also weigh what might happen if Iran's current leadership collapses or changes abruptly, especially after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei exits the scene. They fear that power might shift further toward the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or that rival factions could fight for control, pulling the broader region into a prolonged crisis.

Gulf states Iran crisis regional stability and economic reform

Former US Ambassador Michael Ratney captured this ambivalence among Gulf capitals, stating, "They have no love for the Iranian regime," and adding, "but they also have a great aversion to instability." Officials therefore try to balance pressure on Tehran with the need to avoid sudden shocks to markets and security structures.

For Saudi Arabia, stable conditions are especially important as the country advances its Vision 2030 programme, which seeks to diversify the economy away from oil. Analysts observe that many Gulf states would prefer gradual internal reforms in Iran to abrupt regime change, and are likely to keep urging Washington to avoid actions that raise volatility.

While Gulf officials maintain their cautious public stance, their private diplomacy reflects deep anxiety over further escalation. They view Iran's domestic unrest, the risk to vital oil routes, and fluid US deliberations as interconnected threats. For now, these governments continue to press for restraint, hoping regional stability can be preserved despite mounting pressures.