Hindustan Zinc Gets Buy Rating From B&K Securities With Rs 610 Target

Hindustan Zinc Ltd. is viewed positively by B&K Securities, which assigns a "BUY" rating and projects further gains. The brokerage expects benefits from low production costs, larger metal volumes and rising silver output. These strengths are seen supporting earnings over the medium term, even as the report flags commodity price swings and weaker Chinese demand as key sector risks.

The target price for Hindustan Zinc Ltd. is pegged at Rs 610, using FY28E estimates with separate EV/EBITDA multiples for each segment. On this basis, the brokerage calculates a possible 24.5% upside against the closing price of Rs 490 on 8 December. Hindustan Zinc Ltd. is also noted as India’s largest integrated producer of zinc, lead and silver, with a meaningful global footprint.

"We initiate coverage on the stock with a Buy rating and a target price of Rs 610, based on 9x EV/EBITDA multiple for the Zinc and Lead segments and 15x EV/EBITDA for the Silver segment on FY28E estimates. This implies a 22.5% upside from the current market price, based on our base case scenarios of US$ 3,000/2,050 per tonne and 44/oz for Zinc/Lead/Silver. The stock is currently trading at 9x FY28E EBITDA," said the research analysts of B&K Securities in a report.

The valuation approach distinguishes between Hindustan Zinc Ltd.’s core metals and silver businesses, assigning 9x EV/EBITDA to zinc and lead and 15x to silver. The report notes that these multiples rely on FY28E projections and price assumptions of US$ 3,000 per tonne for zinc, US$ 2,050 per tonne for lead and US$ 44 per ounce for silver. Hindustan Zinc share performance is therefore linked closely to commodity trends.

B&K Securities highlights that expectations of further cost optimisation reinforce the investment view on Hindustan Zinc Ltd. The study estimates that annual zinc production cash costs may fall from US$ 1,052 per tonne in FY25 to US$ 1,000 per tonne in FY26. This planned improvement is attributed to higher metal grades, operational efficiencies and better control over power expenses.

The brokerage underlines the company’s relative advantage within the global peer set. "HZL's zinc production cost of US$ 994/tonne (2QFY26) ranks it among the lowest-cost producers globally, ~30% lower than the global peer average of US$ 1,300-1,400/tonne." The report argues that this industry-leading cost position gives Hindustan Zinc Ltd. a competitive moat, particularly during weaker price cycles.

According to B&K Securities, Hindustan Zinc Ltd.’s status as one of the most cost-effective producers is expected to strengthen over time. The combination of improved ore grades, scale-driven volume growth and declining energy costs is forecast to support margins. These elements together form the first leg of the brokerage’s investment rationale for Hindustan Zinc share and underpin its favourable recommendation.

Hindustan Zinc share growth plans under Hindustan Zinc 2.0 strategy

The second key driver identified by the brokerage is capacity expansion under the "Hindustan Zinc 2.0" programme. Hindustan Zinc Ltd.’s Board approved Phase I of this strategy in June 2025. The plan aims to raise integrated refined metal production capacity from about 1.2 million tonnes per annum to 2.0 million tonnes per annum within five years.

The expansion blueprint covers zinc, lead and silver and is expected to involve capital expenditure between Rs 250 billion and Rs 300 billion. The initiative targets higher integrated refined output by 2030, with the objective of nearly doubling metal capacity. B&K Securities views this transformative growth plan as a core pillar for long-term volume-led earnings support for Hindustan Zinc share.

Hindustan Zinc Ltd.’s position in the Indian primary zinc market is already dominant, and the programme is expected to reinforce that role. As capacities ramp up, the company is projected to capture additional demand both domestically and in export markets. The brokerage sees this volume visibility, when combined with low costs, as supportive for valuation multiples and cash generation.

Hindustan Zinc share silver segment prospects and capacity expansion

The report devotes particular attention to the silver business, which is becoming a larger share of Hindustan Zinc Ltd.’s profit mix. The company is identified as the fourth-largest silver producer in the world. Management is pursuing a long-term plan to increase refined silver capacity from 800 tonnes per annum to 1,500 tonnes per annum.

B&K Securities states that the silver segment benefits from diverse industrial uses worldwide, including electronics, solar and other applications. The brokerage expects Hindustan Zinc Ltd. to gain from a projected global deficit in silver supply. This potential shortfall could support prices and thereby enhance the contribution of the silver business to Hindustan Zinc share valuations over the forecast period.

Hindustan Zinc share key operating and expansion metrics

Key quantitative indicators mentioned in the report for Hindustan Zinc Ltd. are summarised below for reference by investors analysing Hindustan Zinc share fundamentals.

Metric	Value / Plan	Period / Comment
Target price	Rs 610	Based on FY28E EV/EBITDA
Implied upside	24.5%	Versus Rs 490 close on 8 December
Alternate implied upside	22.5%	As stated in initiation quote
Zinc production cost	US$ 994/tonne	2QFY26, among lowest globally
Global peer average cost	US$ 1,300–1,400/tonne	Approximately 30% higher
Projected zinc cost	US$ 1,052 → US$ 1,000/tonne	Expected from FY25 to FY26
Current metal capacity	~1.2 mtpa	Integrated refined metals
Planned metal capacity	2.0 mtpa	Target over next five years
Capex estimate	Rs 250–300 billion	Hindustan Zinc 2.0 programme
Silver capacity	800 → 1,500 tpa	Long-term refined silver expansion

B&K Securities reiterates that its "BUY" stance for Hindustan Zinc share is anchored on three linked pillars. These are cost leadership in zinc, incremental volume growth from planned capacity additions and expanding silver production. At the same time, the report stresses that any extended slowdown in China or sharp commodity price volatility could weigh on realised earnings and valuations.

Hindustan Zinc Ltd., part of the Vedanta Group, remains the largest integrated producer of zinc, lead and silver in India and holds a sizeable share in global zinc and silver markets. The brokerage’s analysis suggests that sustained cost advantages, structured expansion under Hindustan Zinc 2.0 and a stronger silver portfolio together support a constructive medium-term outlook for Hindustan Zinc share, subject to broader market and price risks.

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