Oil prices edge higher as Venezuela sanctions and Iran tensions weigh on global supply

Oil prices edge higher as traders weigh political tension in Venezuela, firm U.S. sanctions and unrest in Iran against still-solid global supply. Market participants judge that immediate disruption to crude flows remains limited, yet they reassess risk premiums linked to several OPEC producers and future policy decisions in Washington.

By 00:24 GMT, Brent crude futures gain 17 cents to trade at $60.92 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate adds 11 cents to $57.43. Analysts say the restrained moves suggest that comfortable inventories and alternative supply options continue to limit any strong price spike despite heightened geopolitical concern.

Investors concentrate on Venezuela after U.S. President Donald Trump seizes Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, raising fresh questions over control of exports from the OPEC member. Washington confirms that its embargo on all Venezuelan oil remains fully in force, which keeps a key source of heavy crude locked out of U.S. refiners.

Trump states that Washington will assume control of the oil-producing nation and confirms that the U.S. embargo on all Venezuelan oil stays fully in force. The United States snatched Maduro from Caracas over the weekend, deepening uncertainty over control of state assets and future export policy in the already-sanctioned producer.

A senior Venezuelan official says on Sunday that the interim government stays united behind Maduro, signalling no immediate split in leadership ranks. On the same day, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, decide to maintain their collective production targets, despite political stress facing several members.

The OPEC+ decision to keep output steady suggests the group sees the market as adequately supplied for now. This stance, alongside Venezuela’s ongoing internal alignment, reassures some traders that any near-term export changes should mainly stem from sanctions policy rather than from additional voluntary supply cuts.

Oil prices, Venezuela oil sanctions and supply risk outlook

Two sources familiar with state oil company PDVSA operations report that the U.S. strike to extract Maduro causes no damage to Venezuela's production or refining systems. Key facilities keep operating, which implies that any short-term export losses would arise from sanctions or political direction, not from physical infrastructure outages.

Goldman Sachs keeps its 2026 oil price forecasts unchanged, while describing only limited market risks from the latest events. "We see ambiguous but modest risks to oil prices in the short-run from Venezuela depending on how U.S. sanctions policy evolves," Goldman Sachs analysts led by Daan Struyven said in a January 4 note.

Helima Croft, RBC Capital's head of commodities research, highlights how future sanctions shifts could change output volumes. "Certainly, we think full sanctions relief could unlock several hundred kb/d of production over a 12-month period in an orderly transition situation." "However, all bets are off in a chaotic change of power scenario like what occurred in Libya or Iraq," she added.

Oil prices, Venezuela oil flows and wider regional tensions

Markets also monitor Iran after Trump threatens on Friday to intervene in any harsh response to protests there, which raises geopolitical tension around another OPEC producer. Rights groups say at least 16 people die during a week of demonstrations driven by soaring inflation, adding another risk factor for energy traders.

The latest developments unfold as a Guinea-flagged, sanctioned tanker, MT Bandra, is observed alongside another vessel at the El Palito terminal near Puerto Cabello, Venezuela, on 29 December 2025. The sighting underlines how sanctioned flows remain under close scrutiny. Reporting is by Florence Tan, with editing by Jamie Freed and Sonali Paul, under The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Key price levels at 00:24 GMT are shown below.

Contract	Price (USD/barrel)	Change	Time (GMT)
Brent crude futures	60.92	+0.17	00:24
WTI crude futures	57.43	+0.11	00:24

Overall, crude benchmarks post only modest gains as traders weigh firm U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, leadership uncertainty in Caracas, steady OPEC+ supply policy and unrest in Iran. With infrastructure in Venezuela still operating and forecasts unchanged, market attention centres on how future U.S. and regional political moves may reshape export flows.