Tata Steel Target INR 219 by Axis Securities for 6-9 Months Outlook

Axis Securities named Tata Steel as its pick of the week. The brokerage set a target price of Rs 219 for 6 to 9 months. That suggested a 14.66% upside from Rs 191 on 9 Mar at 12:42 pm IST. Tata Steel Group produced 31 mtpa crude steel in 2024.

The World Steel Association ranked Tata Steel Group tenth globally by crude steel output. The group said it could make over 35 million tonnes yearly. Axis Securities linked the call to capacity plans in India. It also pointed to policy shifts in Europe and the UK. Leverage during expansion stayed a key watch point.

"Onaconsolidated basis, Tata Steel's EBITDA will be better in Q4FY26 QoQ, with volumes increasing by almost 0.5 MT QoQ. Higher steel prices in India will offset higher coking coal consumption cost which will drive higher spreads in Q4FY26. Capex sequencing will remain aligned to balance sheet strength, preserving flexibility through the cycle. Also, Cost transformation continues to anchor earnings despite macro volatility. Tata Steel is currently trading at 6.8x 12MF consensus EV/EBITDAvs. LT average of 6.7x," commented the research analysts of Axis Securities.

Tata Steel Ltd. traded at Rs 191.17 on the NSE at 12:47 PM IST. The previous close was Rs 198.46, while the open was Rs 193.45. The stock hit an intraday high of Rs 193.70 and a low of Rs 187.03. Around 12:47 PM IST, it was down 3.67%.

Over the past 52 weeks, Tata Steel moved between Rs 216.45 and Rs 125.30. The day’s fall came despite the brokerage’s positive view. Axis Securities focused on near-term earnings support and later capacity gains. Investors often track these levels for risk control. Price swings remained notable across the past year.

Tata Steel share price drivers in India operations

Axis Securities expected Indian volumes to rise YoY in FY27. It cited no BF relining and the 0.75 EAF plant at Ludhiana in H1FY27. Up to FY30, it flagged downstream capex at Kalinganagar CRM and Jamshedpur Combi mill. It also noted additions in tubes and high-end wires.

Upstream growth was expected to pick up after FY29. The note highlighted a 4.8 MTPA NINL expansion, with EC expected shortly. It also mentioned the Meramandali expansion and Maharashtra greenfield plants. During this phase, Net Debt-to-EBITDA was expected near ~3.0x. The ratio stood at 2.6x then.

In Europe, TSN Q3 EBITDA was €55 Mn (€39/t), down 39% QoQ. Lower sales volumes of 1.4 MT and a 50% US tariff hurt exports. Cost gains of €21/t only partly helped. Axis Securities expected Q4 realisations to slip by ~€30/t. It still saw support from CBAM and safeguards.

Management expected a phased €70100/t uplift through CY26. It linked the lift to CBAM and possible Jun'26 tariff hikes. About 60-65% of volumes were tied to spot prices. In the UK, EBITDA losses stayed at £63 Mn. Cost cuts of £400-500 Mn, including Rs 570 Cr this quarter, reduced pressure.

Axis Securities said UK breakeven depended on a £75-100/t spread rise. It also pointed to urgent government changes to import quotas. Even so, the 3 MTPA EAF shift stayed on schedule. The firm viewed this as a way to remove long-term structural cost gaps. Weak demand and cheap imports remained constraints.

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Tata Steel stayed in focus as Axis Securities set a Rs 219 target over 6 to 9 months. The brokerage anchored its view on India expansion visibility and product mix gains. It also assessed policy-linked impacts in Europe and the UK. On 9 March 2026, the stock traded lower intraday, showing continued volatility.