SpaceX's First IPO Earnings To Decide The Rocket Stock's Next Fate; What To Expect From Elon Musk's Colossal?

This week, SpaceX will be on a pedestal at the heart of Wall Street as it prepares to declare its first quarterly earnings as a public company. Firstly, the rocket maker's earnings will offer a glimpse of its financial growth potential amid AI bubble risks. Secondly, investors will eye the release of unlocked stocks. Elon Musk's drive to keep investors excited about SpaceX has faded since its listing, leading to an outflow of over $1 trillion.

There is downward pressure on SpaceX, and its quarterly results will be a break-it-or-make-it moment.

"The results, due after the market close on Aug. 4, come as investors appear skeptical of some of the market's highly valued artificial intelligence stocks. And while SpaceX is predominantly a space and communications company, it has been investing heavily in its AI business," said analysts at Morningstar in a report.

SpaceX Stock Price:

When SpaceX's $75 billion worth of IPO hit Wall Street in mid-June, the craze was extraordinary! The goliath-sized rocket launcher for NASA looked like a rising star with potential for growth as high as a moon landing. If it wasn't SpaceX, then investors simply felt attracted because the company belonged to the richest man in the world, Elon Musk. The founder of Tesla, an electric vehicle behemoth of the USA.

Investors saw SpaceX on par with tech giants like Microsoft and Amazon. However, the stardom faded rather quickly!

SpaceX went on to skyrocket to $200 apiece on the third day since listing, compared to the IPO price of $135. However, that was the last glory for SpaceX, as the stock simply lost engines for lift.

On August 3, 2026, in the pre-market, SpaceX traded between $106 to $108 apiece, down by nearly 2% on Nasdaq. The giant stock ended July 31st at $112.20 apiece.

From listing to last month's end, SpaceX has lost 17% from its IPO price and crashed over 44% from its all-time high level.

The market valuation of SpaceX has eroded by nearly $1.4 trillion since listing day, when it climbed to hit a $2.8 trillion market cap. Currently, SpaceX's valuation stands around $1.427 trillion, making it the ninth-largest company in the world.

There are multiple reasons why SpaceX is facing extreme selling pressure. At the top of the list is the limited stock available for purchase.

As per data from Axios, a supply and demand situation is playing out here. SpaceX made a very small percentage of its stock available to investors when it went public, less than 5%. That means there was high demand for only a wee bit of stock. And even then, the pop faded.

Reports are claiming that SpaceX employees and early investors are likely to offload up to 911.5 million shares two days after the quarterly result, on Thursday.

The second reason is the concern around massive investment in AI innovation and its time frame for unlocking potential growth.

"The selloff comes amid declines in many stocks at the center of the AI trade. That includes semiconductor and other hardware stocks, which had seen gains well in the triple digits earlier this year, as well as declines in mega-cap hyperscalers like Alphabet GOOGL and Meta Platforms META. For SpaceX, the relevant concern is whether the massive investment in the AI buildout will generate the returns needed to support valuations," the Morningstar report said.

What To Expect In SpaceX's earnings?

Nicolas Owens, who covers SpaceX for Morningstar, will be looking at second-quarter revenues for its AI business.

He highlighted this will include infrastructure rental payments from Anthropic, Google, and possibly Reflection, as well as their cost and capex run rate. He added, "I don't expect AI to be profitable for a long time."

The other key area will be revenue and profits for the Starlink satellite communications business, "to see what kind of trendline for subscriber growth they are experiencing," he said.

FactSet cited that Wall Street expects SpaceX to book $13.2 billion in capital expenditures for the June quarter and deliver negative free cash flow of $1.9 billion. Analysts see full-year capex of almost $46 billion in 2026, followed by $87 billion in 2027.

Investors are expected to focus on Elon Musk's commentary. Bernstein analysts in a report led by Douglas Harned said, "We believe the quarterly results should not matter," adding, "What will be important is the level of confidence projected by management regarding the company's growth path."

So far, SpaceX has been unprofitable. In the first quarter of 2026, the company reported around a $4.28 billion loss, while in 2025, the loss was approximately near $5 billion on $18.7 billion in sales.

Starlink is currently seen as the growth engine of SpaceX, and Owens expects the mega telecom could report 93% growth in its subscriber base in 2026; however, slower than the 229% upside in 2025.

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