The Central Statistics Offer (CSO) will be releasing India's GDP estimates for the first quarter of FY 2017-18 at 5:30 pm today. For the Q4FY17, GDP dropped lower to 6.1% as against expectations. As per the CSO data, the real GDP keeping the price constant as in 2011-12 for FY17 registered a growth of 7.1% at Rs 121.90 lakh crore in comparison to Rs 113.81 lakh crore in the year 2015-16.
Different analysts have come up with a different GDP figure for Q1FY18.
A Reuters poll of economists suggest that for the first quarter of the current FY, GDP numbers are likely to expand to 6.6% in comparison to the corresponding period in the previous year. This means, the GDP outlook for the quarter in discussion shall be positive as against the previous quarter. As per the poll, the forecast ranges between 5.7-7.2%.
Experts at HSBC expect GDP data in Q1FY18 to be lower than Q4FY17 numbers and forecast it at 6%. In its report, the global financial services company states 'that higher private consumption and government spending is likely to be "dulled" by weak investment and exports growth over the quarter'.
In Q4FY17 the GVA or Gross Value Added stood at 5.6%. GVA, which is GDP less net taxes, gives a more realistic picture of the changes in total value of goods and services produced in the country. The sharp decline in GVA value over the last few quarters suggest a considerable slowdown which is primarily attributed to demonetisation and the resultant decline in household consumption and corporate investment.
Also, destocking by businesses across industries due to GST implementation from July 1 and cut down in production will also have a significant bearing on the GDP numbers for the quarter.