Budget Expectations From Stock Market Investors

Even as we head into the Budget 2019, we are not sure whether it would be an interim budget, or a budget that has unusually large recommendations.

In fact, it looks like Interim Finance Minister, Piyush Goyal would announce the recommendations. Many stock market investors, do not expect significant changes from an investment perspective.

In fact, what many investors are looking at is the fiscal deficit numbers for 2018-19 and the projections for 2019-20.

At the moment it looks like we will have an increased fiscal deficit number of 3.5 per cent of GDP in 2018-19. Markets are likely to watch this number carefully.

Beyond that there is not too much excitement among stock market investors, though there are hopes that the Securities Transaction Tax would be cut and some benefits with regards to capital gains tax. The latter of course seems an unlikely thing that to happen.

Markets would also eagerly look at the benefits for the farmers and if they are likely to put a strain on the fiscal deficit. Beyond this do not expect too much from the Interim Budget.

How should investors position themselves?

It is best to avoid long positions and take a more cautious approach. There are barely three months more for central government elections, which is actually a bigger event. It is best to avoid high beta names and take shelter in some of the safe FMCG stocks or in the high dividend yielding stocks like Coal India.

Beyond this one can also look at high quality banking names from the private sector space. All in all, expect no bigger surprises for stock market investors.