Stock Market Alert: Will Trump- Zelenskyy Fallout Impact Sensex, Nifty On Monday, March 3?

Stock Market On March 3: While the global market is likely to process the latest intense fallout between US President Donald Trump and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, heightening geopolitical tensions. On Monday, in the early trade, US stock futures traded volatile, while Asian shares rose as investors await clarity on Trump's tariff plans. Also, Gift Nifty was mildly up. Apart from global trends, Indian equities will also react to the Q3 GDP numbers of the country.

Sensex, Nifty:

On the last trading session of February month, which was the 28th, Sensex closed at 73,198.10, down by 1,414.33 points or 1.90%. While Nifty 50 plunged by 420.35 points or 1.86% to close at 22,124.70.

Explaining last week's market performance, Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services said, the Indian equity market closed the holiday-shortened week on a significantly weaker note, as investor sentiment deteriorated due to escalating trade tariff concerns and unfavourable global cues. The IT sector faced the sharpest decline amid fears of a weakening U.S. business environment, leading to deal deferrals. Additionally, concerns over high valuations continued to weigh on small and mid-cap stocks. Meanwhile, declining U.S. bond yields signal a flight to safe-haven assets, while FII flows have shifted toward more affordable markets.

Overall, in a month, Sensex nosedived by 3,988.64 points or 5.17%, while Nifty tumbled by 1,236.35 points or 5.29%.

What Has Happened When Market Was Sleeping?

India Q3 GDP Data:

India's real GDP growth rate has been observed at 6.2% for Q3 of FY25. While the Growth rate in Nominal GDP for Q3 of FY 2024-25 has been estimated at 9.9%. The latest performance of GDP is better than the seven-quarterly low of 5.4% that was recorded in Q2FY25.

Trump - Zelenskyy Fallout:

Meanwhile, last week, when Zelensky visited the Oval Office at White House to meet Trump and VP JD Vance, situation escalated from exchanging compliments to accusations. Eventually, Zelensky and his team was asked to leave without the lunch that was scheduled at the White House with Trump and Vance.

Trump tweeted through his X handler, "We had a very meaningful meeting in the White House today. Much was learned that could never be understood without conversation under such fire and pressure. It's amazing what comes out through emotion, and I have determined that President Zelenskyy is not ready for Peace if America is involved, because he feels our involvement gives him a big advantage in negotiations. I don't want advantage, I want PEACE."

Trump added, "He disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office. He can come back when he is ready for Peace."

However, despite his heated exchange with Vance first with Trump stepping in as well, Zelenskyy tweeted "America's help has been vital in helping us survive, and I want to acknowledge that. Despite the tough dialogue, we remain strategic partners. But we need to be honest and direct with each other to truly understand our shared goals."

Zelenskyy also said, "It's crucial for us to have President Trump's support. He wants to end the war, but no one wants peace more than we do. We are the ones living in this war in Ukraine. It's a fight for our freedom, for our very survival."

How will the Indian Stock Market Will React On Monday?

In the early trade, Gift Nifty traded mildly up to around 22,366 levels, hinting at the slight upside-to-flattish opening for Sensex and Nifty on Monday.

Asian shares were mixed, with the Japanese Nikkei 225 gaining more than 1%. The TOPIX index surged over 1% and was trading 0.32% higher. Australia's ASX 200 was marginally up.

As per Trading Economics, US stock futures remained volatile on Monday as Wall Street seeks to recover from a tumultuous February. Investors are keenly eyeing the March 4 deadline for President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs on key US trading partners.

Nair said, "India's Q3 FY25 GDP data met expectations, with a slight upward revision to 6.5% for the fiscal year. The agriculture sector posted steady growth in Q3, indicating a likely improvement in the kharif crop, which could support rural consumption. Investors will be closely watching key upcoming events, including the tariff policy, U.S. Core PCE Price Index, and jobless claims. In the near term, market conditions are expected to remain weak, with a gradual recovery anticipated as earnings improve from Q1 FY26 and global trade policy uncertainties subside."

Mayank Mundhra, FRM- VP Risk & Head Research Abans Group added, the markets are adjusting valuations of stocks, particularly the high PE ones, as long term growth prospects are being looked at more realistically vs optimistically . The euphoric nature which was prevalent till october'24, is being normalised towards long term mean, in this fall.

Mundhra added, "Despite these headwinds, improving Q3 corporate earnings indicate underlying resilience. As global trade tensions ease and RBI's policy measures take effect, investor confidence should improve, potentially leading to renewed inflows and a market recovery."

On the other hand, Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said, "Donald Trump reaffirmed 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico to come into effect from 4th March. He also stated that goods from China will be subject to an additional 10% duty and mentioned that 25% tariffs on EU will be announced soon, heightening fears of trade war. Further, weak INR and continued FII selling extended pressure on the domestic market. Nifty has fallen almost 6% in Feb, its fifth consecutive month of decline. We expect market to continue to trade with weakness due to weak global sentiments and lack of domestic triggers."

Krishna Appala, Sr. Analyst at Capitalmind Research explained that market discipline matters in tough times just as much as in strong ones, and achieving long-term returns isn't a straight path-it includes periods of steep drawdowns and sharp recoveries.

On the macro front, Appala added, conditions remain stable. Fiscal deficits are under control, tax cuts are expected to boost consumption, inflation is low at 4.31%, and rate cuts have started, which should support economic growth. Domestic investors continue to pump money into mutual funds, offsetting some of the foreign selling pressure. While it is impossible to predict an exact market bottom, excessive negativity often signals a turning point. Markets do not move in a single direction forever. Despite the short-term sell-off, the combination of strong macro fundamentals, robust earnings growth, and attractive valuations makes this an important period for investors to focus on the long-term opportunity rather than the immediate volatility.